Multi-criteria parameter estimation for the unified land model

We describe a parameter estimation framework for the Unified Land Model (ULM) that utilizes multiple independent data sets over the continental United States. These include a satellite-based evapotranspiration (ET) product based on MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) imagery, an atmospheric-water balance based ET estimate that utilizes North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) atmospheric fields, terrestrial water storage content (TWSC) data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and streamflow ( Q ) primarily from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauges. The study domain includes 10 large-scale (≥10 5 km 2 ) river basins and 250 smaller-scale ( 4 km 2 ) tributary basins. ULM, which is essentially a merger of the Noah Land Surface Model and Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model, is the basis for these experiments. Calibrations were made using each of the data sets individually, in addition to combinations of multiple criteria, with multi-criteria skill scores computed for all cases. At large scales, calibration to Q resulted in the best overall performance, whereas certain combinations of ET and TWSC calibrations lead to large errors in other criteria. At small scales, about one-third of the basins had their highest Q performance from multi-criteria calibrations (to Q and ET) suggesting that traditional calibration to Q may benefit by supplementing observed Q with remote sensing estimates of ET. Model streamflow errors using optimized parameters were mostly due to over (under) estimation of low (high) flows. Overall, uncertainties in remote-sensing data proved to be a limiting factor in the utility of multi-criteria parameter estimation.

[1]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.

[2]  P. Bauer‐Gottwein,et al.  Combining satellite radar altimetry, SAR surface soil moisture and GRACE total storage changes for hydrological model calibration in a large poorly gauged catchment , 2011 .

[3]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Satellite‐based near‐real‐time estimation of irrigated crop water consumption , 2009 .

[4]  Henrik Madsen,et al.  Incorporating multiple observations for distributed hydrologic model calibration : An approach using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm and clustering , 2008 .

[5]  Keith Beven,et al.  Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology , 2001 .

[6]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  Drought Monitoring for Washington State: Indicators and Applications , 2011 .

[7]  Matthew F. McCabe,et al.  Calibration of a land surface model using multiple data sets , 2005 .

[8]  A. Güntner,et al.  Calibration analysis for water storage variability of the global hydrological model WGHM , 2009 .

[9]  Ramakrishna R. Nemani,et al.  An operational remote sensing algorithm of land surface evaporation , 2003 .

[10]  Hubert H. G. Savenije,et al.  A Comparison of Global and Regional GRACE Models for Land Hydrology , 2008 .

[11]  Hoshin Vijai Gupta,et al.  A process‐based diagnostic approach to model evaluation: Application to the NWS distributed hydrologic model , 2008 .

[12]  A. J. MacLean,et al.  Multiobjective calibration of the MESH hydrological model on the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed , 2010 .

[13]  G. Lischeid Combining Hydrometric and Hydrochemical Data Sets for Investigating Runoff Generation Processes: Tautologies, Inconsistencies and Possible Explanations , 2008 .

[14]  J. Famiglietti,et al.  Improving parameter estimation and water table depth simulation in a land surface model using GRACE water storage and estimated base flow data , 2010 .

[15]  M. Mccabe,et al.  Estimating Land Surface Evaporation: A Review of Methods Using Remotely Sensed Surface Temperature Data , 2008 .

[16]  Taikan Oki,et al.  Global atmospheric water balance and runoff from large river basins , 1995 .

[17]  Youlong Xia,et al.  Improvement of the Noah land surface model for warm season processes: evaluation of water and energy flux simulation , 2013 .

[18]  Matthew Rodell,et al.  Total basin discharge for the Amazon and Mississippi River basins from GRACE and a land‐atmosphere water balance , 2005 .

[19]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Development of a Unified Land Model for Prediction of Surface Hydrology and Land–Atmosphere Interactions , 2011 .

[20]  M. Ek,et al.  Continental‐scale water and energy flux analysis and validation for North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS‐2): 2. Validation of model‐simulated streamflow , 2012 .

[21]  Soroosh Sorooshian,et al.  Multi-objective global optimization for hydrologic models , 1998 .

[22]  E. Rasmusson,et al.  Atmospheric Water Vapor Transport and the Water Balance of North America , 1968 .

[23]  A. Ruane NARR's atmospheric water cycle components. Part II: Summertime mean and diurnal interactions. , 2010 .

[24]  W. Wagner,et al.  Improving runoff prediction through the assimilation of the ASCAT soil moisture product , 2010 .

[25]  Regional terrestrial water storage change and evapotranspiration from terrestrial and atmospheric water balance computations , 2008 .

[26]  R. Rosen,et al.  Exchange of water vapor between land and ocean in the northern hemisphere , 1981 .

[27]  Elfatih A. B. Eltahir,et al.  Hydroclimatology of Illinois: A comparison of monthly evaporation estimates based on atmospheric water balance and soil water balance , 1998 .

[28]  Doerthe Tetzlaff,et al.  Towards a simple dynamic process conceptualization in rainfall–runoff models using multi‐criteria calibration and tracers in temperate, upland catchments , 2009 .

[29]  M. Budyko,et al.  Climate and life , 1975 .

[30]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  Noah LSM Snow Model Diagnostics and Enhancements , 2010 .

[31]  G. McGregor,et al.  Regional classification, variability, and trends of northern North Atlantic river flow , 2011 .

[32]  S. Sorooshian,et al.  Effective and efficient algorithm for multiobjective optimization of hydrologic models , 2003 .

[33]  John C. Schaake,et al.  The US MOPEX data set. , 2006 .

[34]  J. D. Tarpley,et al.  Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model , 2003 .

[35]  A. Sahoo,et al.  Multisource estimation of long-term terrestrial water budget for major global river basins , 2012 .

[36]  Yuqiong Liu,et al.  Reconciling theory with observations: elements of a diagnostic approach to model evaluation , 2008 .

[37]  V. Starr,et al.  Hemispheric water balance for the IGY , 1965 .

[38]  Hoshin Vijai Gupta,et al.  Do Nash values have value? , 2007 .

[39]  W. J. Shuttleworth,et al.  Parameter estimation of a land surface scheme using multicriteria methods , 1999 .

[40]  David D. Parrish,et al.  NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL REANALYSIS , 2006 .

[41]  E. Rasmusson,et al.  ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND THE WATER BALANCE OF NORTH AMERICA: PART I. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE WATER VAPOR FLUX FIELD , 1967 .

[42]  Qingyun Duan,et al.  Use of a Priori Parameter Estimates in the Derivation of Spatially Consistent Parameter Sets of Rainfall‐Runoff Models , 2013 .

[43]  W. Crow,et al.  Multiobjective calibration of land surface model evapotranspiration predictions using streamflow observations and spaceborne surface radiometric temperature retrievals , 2003 .

[44]  Eric A. Rosenberg,et al.  A Long-Term Hydrologically Based Dataset of Land Surface Fluxes and States for the Conterminous United States: Update and Extensions* , 2002 .

[45]  J. D. Tarpley,et al.  The multi‐institution North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS): Utilizing multiple GCIP products and partners in a continental distributed hydrological modeling system , 2004 .

[46]  R. Pinker,et al.  Modeling Surface Solar Irradiance for Satellite Applications on a Global Scale , 1992 .

[47]  Daren M. Carlisle,et al.  GAGES: A stream gage database for evaluating natural and altered flow conditions in the conterminous United States , 2010 .

[48]  Julie A. Vano,et al.  Hydrologic Sensitivities of Colorado River Runoff to Changes in Precipitation and Temperature , 2012 .

[49]  Keith Beven,et al.  The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction. , 1992 .

[50]  M. Sivapalan,et al.  Improving model structure and reducing parameter uncertainty in conceptual water balance models through the use of auxiliary data , 2007 .

[51]  Hoshin Vijai Gupta,et al.  Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling , 2009 .

[52]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[53]  Eric F. Wood,et al.  Quantifying uncertainty in a remote sensing-based estimate of evapotranspiration over continental USA , 2010 .

[54]  Elsa João,et al.  How scale affects environmental impact assessment , 2002 .

[55]  C. Ropelewski,et al.  The Observed Mean Annual Cycle of Moisture Budgets over the Central United States (1973-92) , 1998 .