Improving network traffic flow reliability through dynamic anticipatory tolls

This paper proposes an anticipatory reliability pricing concept and investigates the potential effectiveness of implementing time-varying and state-dependent reliability tolls in tandem with real-time traffic estimation and prediction systems. Travel reliability, related to the flow breakdown probability, is conveyed to drivers in the form of a dynamic toll, for consideration in their route selection. In addition, to manage the traffic proactively a rolling horizon approach is used to generate dynamic tolls based on predicted traffic conditions. The experimental results show that anticipatory reliability tolls could divert travellers away from actual or likely bottlenecks that experience unstable flow, and thus contribute to reducing congestion on toll roads and increasing system utilisation.

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