A Time-Series Analysis of Crime, Deterrence and Drug Abuse in New York City

This paper uses monthly time-series data from New York City that span 1970 to 1996, to provide new evidence on the relationship among crime, deterrence and drug use. The results provide strong support for the deterrence hypothesis. Murders, robberies, burglaries and motor vehicle thefts decline in response to increases in arrests; an increase in the size of the police force generates a decrease in robberies and burglaries. No significant relationship exists between drug use and the violent crimes of felonious assault and murder, or between drug use and motor vehicle thefts. On the other hand, there is a positive relationship between drug use and robberies and burglaries. The paper also finds that an increase in the growth rate of poverty, proxied by the number of AFDC cases, generates an increase in the growth rate of murders and assaults. The results suggest that increased law enforcement is a more effective method of crime prevention in comparison to efforts targeted at drug use.

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