Non-parametric kernel density estimation of species sensitivity distributions in developing water quality criteria of metals

Due to use of different parametric models for establishing species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), comparison of water quality criteria (WQC) for metals of the same group or period in the periodic table is uncertain and results can be biased. To address this inadequacy, a new probabilistic model, based on non-parametric kernel density estimation was developed and optimal bandwidths and testing methods are proposed. Zinc (Zn), cadmium (Cd), and mercury (Hg) of group IIB of the periodic table are widespread in aquatic environments, mostly at small concentrations, but can exert detrimental effects on aquatic life and human health. With these metals as target compounds, the non-parametric kernel density estimation method and several conventional parametric density estimation methods were used to derive acute WQC of metals for protection of aquatic species in China that were compared and contrasted with WQC for other jurisdictions. HC5 values for protection of different types of species were derived for three metals by use of non-parametric kernel density estimation. The newly developed probabilistic model was superior to conventional parametric density estimations for constructing SSDs and for deriving WQC for these metals. HC5 values for the three metals were inversely proportional to atomic number, which means that the heavier atoms were more potent toxicants. The proposed method provides a novel alternative approach for developing SSDs that could have wide application prospects in deriving WQC and use in assessment of risks to ecosystems.

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