WHY DO FISH STOCKS COLLAPSE? THE EXAMPLE OF COD IN ATLANTIC CANADA

In 1993, six Canadian populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) had collapsed to the point where a moratorium was declared on fishing. It has been argued that the collapses were caused by poor recruitment of cod to the fishery. Yet we are unable to detect a difference between the recruitment of year classes that should have contributed most to the spawning stock at the time of the collapse and recruitment levels in earlier years. A power analysis shows that we would have almost certainly detected an overall reduction of recruitment of 20%. There are considerable differences in the abundance trends as determined by research surveys and reconstructed from the commercial catch at age data (called “virtual population analysis” [VPA]) for each stock. VPA-based abundances consistently depict lower recruitment levels than do survey-based estimates in recent years. More important is the observation that from the early 1980s the VPA-based trend shows a decline where none is apparent in the survey-based trend. One...

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