Urban Modeling

A condensed history of urban modeling is presented to alert the reader to the vast literature that exists on the subject and to place Forrester's Urban Dynamics model in perspective. The influence of the export and service concept is found to be pervasive. With the changing context for urban analysis, the major issues appear to have shifted from that of how to accommodate growth through land allocation process. Among the higher priority issues are concerns with equity and environmental quality, the increasing complexity in client-sponsor relations, the need for better policies for operations as well as investments, and the design of meaningful information systems. To complement the other papers in this special issue, suggestions are made to modify or augment urban dynamics by the use of subjective probabilities; the use of empirical feedback to reduce uncertainties and imperfection of knowledge in urban system behavior; the inclusion of explicit values in the construction of a diversity of urban models used together in a gaming process; and the consideration of projecting structural changes in the urban model as a function of changes in values, institutions, and technology.