A Data-Driven Approach for Predicting the Remaining Useful Life of Steam Generators

The reliability of steam generators in nuclear power plants has always been a challenging issue. Various diagnostic models have been proposed in the literature. However, no work has been reported on the development of a robust prediction model for forecasting the future health state of steam generators. In this paper, we propose an ARIMA-based prognostic approach for tracking the degradation evolution in a steam generator and further predicting its Remaining Useful Life (RUL) before breakdown. A case study concerning real degradation datasets from different steam generators is extensively investigated to validate the performance of the proposed model.

[1]  V. N. Shah,et al.  Assessment of primary water stress corrosion cracking of PWR steam generator tubes , 1992 .

[2]  B. Chexal,et al.  Flow-accelerated corrosion in power plants. Revision 1 , 1998 .

[3]  Mahesh D. Pandey,et al.  A probabilistic model of wall thinning in CANDU feeders due to flow-accelerated corrosion , 2008 .

[4]  Noureddine Zerhouni,et al.  Enabling Health Monitoring Approach Based on Vibration Data for Accurate Prognostics , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics.

[5]  Alexandre Chagnes,et al.  A review on clogging of recirculating steam generators in Pressurized-Water Reactors , 2017 .

[6]  Uh Chul Kim,et al.  Effects of chemical compounds on the stress corrosion cracking of steam generator tubing materials in a caustic solution , 2005 .

[7]  Yoshua Bengio,et al.  Random Search for Hyper-Parameter Optimization , 2012, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[8]  Tadeusz Uhl,et al.  Nonparametric approach to improvement of qualitt of modal parameters estimation , 2005 .

[9]  Donghua Zhou,et al.  Remaining useful life estimation - A review on the statistical data driven approaches , 2011, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[10]  B. Chexal,et al.  Flow-accelerated corrosion in power plants , 1996 .

[11]  J. A. Gorman,et al.  Quantitative Assessment of Submodes of Stress Corrosion Cracking on the Secondary Side of Steam Generator Tubing in Pressurized Water Reactors: Part 1 , 2003 .

[12]  Vivekanand Kain,et al.  Flow accelerated corrosion and its control measures for the secondary circuit pipelines in Indian nuclear power plants , 2007 .

[13]  Rob J Hyndman,et al.  Another look at measures of forecast accuracy , 2006 .

[14]  Marc Grandotto,et al.  Deposit models for tube support plate flow blockage in Steam Generators , 2013 .

[15]  P. M. Scott,et al.  1 – An overview of materials degradation by stress corrosion in PWRs , 2007 .

[16]  Sylvain Girard,et al.  Sensitivity analysis and dimension reduction of a steam generator model for clogging diagnosis , 2013, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[17]  Sylvain Girard.  Physical and Statistical Models for Steam Generator Clogging Diagnosis , 2014 .

[18]  Alexis Vergnault,et al.  Steam Generator Blockage: A Thermal-Hydraulic Approach Based on CATHARE 2 , 2008 .