Observed Process-level Constraints of Cloud and Precipitation Properties over the Southern Ocean for Earth System Model Evaluation

. Over the remote Southern Ocean, cloud feedbacks contribute substantially to Earth system model (ESM) radiative biases. The evolution of low Southern Ocean clouds (cloud top heights < ∼ 3 km) is strongly modulated by precipitation and/or evaporation, which act as the primary sink of cloud condensate. Constraining precipitation processes in ESMs requires robust observations suitable for process-level evaluations. A year-long subset (April 2016 – March 2017) of ground-based profiling 5 instrumentation deployed during the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) field campaign (54.5 ◦ S, 158.9 ◦ E) combines a 95 GHz (W-band) Doppler cloud radar, two lidar ceilometers, and balloon-borne soundings to quantify the occurrence frequency of precipitation from liquid-phase cloud base. Liquid-based clouds at Macquarie Island precipitate ∼ 70% of the time, with deeper and colder clouds precipitating more frequently and at a higher intensity compared to thinner and warmer clouds. Supercooled cloud layers precipitate more readily than layers with cloud top temperatures > 0 ◦ C, regardless of 10 the geometric thickness of the layer, and also evaporate more frequently. We further demonstrate an approach to employ these observational constraints for evaluation of a 9-year GISS-ModelE3 ESM simulation. Model output is processed through the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) radar and lidar instrument simulator with the same instrument specifications as those deployed during MICRE, therefore accounting for instrument sensitivities and ensuring a coherent comparison. Relative to MICRE observations, the ESM produces a smaller cloud occurrence frequency, smaller precipitation occurrence frequency, 15 and greater sub-cloud evaporation. The lower precipitation occurrence frequency by the ESM relative to MICRE contrasts with numerous studies that suggest a ubiquitous bias by ESMs to precipitate too frequently over the SO when compared with satellite-based observations, likely owing to sensitivity limitations of space-borne instrumentation and different sampling methodologies for ground- versus space-based observations. Despite these deficiencies, the ESM reproduces the observed

[1]  H. Chepfer,et al.  Southern Ocean Solar Reflection Biases in CMIP6 Models Linked to Cloud Phase and Vertical Structure Representations , 2022, Geophysical Research Letters.

[2]  A. Protat,et al.  Southern Ocean cloud and shortwave radiation biases in a nudged climate model simulation: does the model ever get it right? , 2022, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

[3]  A. Protat,et al.  Detection of supercooled liquid water containing clouds with ceilometers: development and evaluation of deterministic and data-driven retrievals , 2022, Atmospheric Measurement Techniques.

[4]  R. Marchand,et al.  Southern Ocean Precipitation Characteristics Observed From CloudSat and Ground Instrumentation During the Macquarie Island Cloud & Radiation Experiment (MICRE): April 2016 to March 2017 , 2022, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

[5]  R. Marchand,et al.  Coalescence Scavenging Drives Droplet Number Concentration in Southern Ocean Low Clouds , 2022, Geophysical Research Letters.

[6]  M. Kelley,et al.  Snow Reconciles Observed and Simulated Phase Partitioning and Increases Cloud Feedback , 2021, Geophysical Research Letters.

[7]  J. Verlinde,et al.  The Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2) v1.1: An Open-Source Ground-Based Lidar and Radar Instrument Simulator and Subcolumn Generator for Large-Scale Models , 2021, Geoscientific Model Development.

[8]  R. Engelmann,et al.  Contrasting ice formation in Arctic clouds: surface-coupled vs. surface-decoupled clouds , 2021, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

[9]  C. Flynn,et al.  Southern Ocean cloud and aerosol data: a compilation of measurements from the 2018 Southern Ocean Ross Sea Marine Ecosystems and Environment voyage , 2021, Earth System Science Data.

[10]  J. Kay,et al.  An underestimated negative cloud feedback from cloud lifetime changes , 2021, Nature Climate Change.

[11]  R. Engelmann,et al.  Hemispheric contrasts in ice formation in stratiform mixed-phase clouds: Disentangling the role of aerosol and dynamics with ground-based remote sensing , 2021, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

[12]  R. Marchand,et al.  Mixed‐Phase Clouds and Precipitation in Southern Ocean Cyclones and Cloud Systems Observed Poleward of 64°S by Ship‐Based Cloud Radar and Lidar , 2021, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

[13]  A. Bodas‐Salcedo,et al.  A Regime-Oriented Approach to Observationally Constraining Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks , 2020 .

[14]  C. Bretherton,et al.  Observations of Clouds, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Surface Radiation over the Southern Ocean: An Overview of CAPRICORN, MARCUS, MICRE, and SOCRATES , 2020, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

[15]  D. Holdridge,et al.  Balloon-Borne Sounding System (SONDE) Instrument Handbook , 2020 .

[16]  C. Flynn,et al.  Southern Ocean Cloud and Aerosol data: a compilation of measurements from the 2018 Southern Ocean Ross Sea Marine Ecosystems and Environment voyage , 2020 .

[17]  J. Verlinde,et al.  The prevalence of precipitation from polar supercooled clouds , 2020, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

[18]  U. Lohmann,et al.  Microphysical investigation of the seeder and feeder region of an Alpine mixed-phase cloud , 2020, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

[19]  A. McDonald,et al.  The Southern Ocean Radiative Bias, Cloud Compensating Errors and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models , 2020 .

[20]  A. McDonald,et al.  Comparing Satellite‐ and Ground‐Based Observations of Cloud Occurrence Over High Southern Latitudes , 2020, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

[21]  Chih-Chieh Chen,et al.  Contributions of the Liquid and Ice Phases to Global Surface Precipitation: Observations and Global Climate Modeling , 2020 .

[22]  G. McFarquhar,et al.  Southern Ocean Cloud Properties Derived From CAPRICORN and MARCUS Data , 2020, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

[23]  D. Bromwich,et al.  AWARE: The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment , 2020, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

[24]  R. Marchand,et al.  On the Relationship Between the Marine Cold Air Outbreak M Parameter and Low‐Level Cloud Heights in the Midlatitudes , 2020, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

[25]  J. Verlinde,et al.  Nonturbulent Liquid‐Bearing Polar Clouds: Observed Frequency of Occurrence and Simulated Sensitivity to Gravity Waves , 2020, Geophysical Research Letters.

[26]  P. Kollias,et al.  Mind the gap – Part 1: Accurately locating warm marine boundary layer clouds and precipitation using spaceborne radars , 2020 .

[27]  C. Naud,et al.  Relationships Between Precipitation Properties and Large‐Scale Conditions During Subsidence at the Eastern North Atlantic Observatory , 2020, Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR.

[28]  C. Bretherton,et al.  Simulating Observations of Southern Ocean Clouds and Implications for Climate , 2020, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

[29]  Johannes Verlinde,et al.  Can Embedded Liquid Cloud Layer Volumes Be Classified in Polar Clouds Using a Single- Frequency Zenith-Pointing Radar? , 2020, IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters.

[30]  W. Petersen,et al.  The Latitudinal Variability of Oceanic Rainfall Properties and Its Implication for Satellite Retrievals: 1. Drop Size Distribution Properties , 2019, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

[31]  J. Bühl,et al.  Ice crystal number concentration from lidar, cloud radar and radar wind profiler measurements , 2019 .

[32]  Argyro Nisantzi,et al.  Ice-nucleating particle versus ice crystal number concentrationin altocumulus and cirrus layers embedded in Saharan dust:a closure study , 2019 .

[33]  Hélène Chepfer,et al.  The Cumulus And Stratocumulus CloudSat-CALIPSO Dataset (CASCCAD) , 2019, Earth System Science Data.

[34]  J. Cassano,et al.  Evaluation of Southern Ocean cloud in the HadGEM3 general circulation model and MERRA-2 reanalysis using ship-based observations , 2019, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

[35]  Sally McFarlane,et al.  Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility: ARM Mobile Facility Workshop Report , 2019 .

[36]  M. Shupe,et al.  Arctic Summer Airmass Transformation, Surface Inversions, and the Surface Energy Budget , 2019, Journal of Climate.

[37]  M. Kelley,et al.  Evaluating models' response of tropical low clouds to SST forcings using CALIPSO observations , 2018, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

[38]  M. Manton,et al.  Characteristics of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over the Southern Ocean in Response to the Synoptic Forcing , 2018, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

[39]  G. Mace,et al.  Clouds over the Southern Ocean as Observed from the R/V Investigator during CAPRICORN. Part I: Cloud Occurrence and Phase Partitioning , 2018, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

[40]  G. Mace,et al.  Clouds over the Southern Ocean as Observed from the R/V Investigator during CAPRICORN. Part II: The Properties of Nonprecipitating Stratocumulus , 2018, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

[41]  R. Marchand,et al.  Sensitivities of Simulated Satellite Views of Clouds to Subgrid‐Scale Overlap and Condensate Heterogeneity , 2018, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

[42]  M. Manton,et al.  Evidence of a Diurnal Cycle in Precipitation over the Southern Ocean as Observed at Macquarie Island , 2018, Atmosphere.

[43]  E. Luke,et al.  Scaling of Drizzle Virga Depth With Cloud Thickness for Marine Stratocumulus Clouds , 2018 .

[44]  C. Flynn,et al.  Polar Liquid Cloud Base Detection Algorithms for High Spectral Resolution or Micropulse Lidar Data , 2018 .

[45]  H. Chepfer,et al.  Scale‐Aware and Definition‐Aware Evaluation of Modeled Near‐Surface Precipitation Frequency Using CloudSat Observations , 2018 .

[46]  A. Protat,et al.  Cloud Properties Observed From the Surface and by Satellite at the Northern Edge of the Southern Ocean , 2018 .

[47]  J. Mülmenstädt,et al.  A Multimodel Study on Warm Precipitation Biases in Global Models Compared to Satellite Observations , 2017 .

[48]  Robert Pincus,et al.  The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package: Version 2 , 2017 .

[49]  Y. Fu,et al.  Oceanic single‐layer warm clouds missed by the Cloud Profiling Radar as inferred from MODIS and CALIOP measurements , 2016 .

[50]  T. Andrews,et al.  Cloud liquid water path and radiative feedbacks over the Southern Ocean , 2016 .

[51]  J. Bühl,et al.  Measuring ice- and liquid-water properties in mixed-phase cloud layers at the Leipzig Cloudnet station , 2016 .

[52]  Mark D. Ivey,et al.  The ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) Sites , 2016 .

[53]  Jean-Charles Dupont,et al.  BASTA: A 95-GHz FMCW Doppler Radar for Cloud and Fog Studies , 2016 .

[54]  Brian E. Eaton,et al.  Evaluating and improving cloud phase in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 using spaceborne lidar observations , 2016 .

[55]  K. Taylor,et al.  Quantifying the Sources of Intermodel Spread in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity , 2016 .

[56]  J. Kay,et al.  Global Climate Impacts of Fixing the Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) , 2016 .

[57]  T. Storelvmo,et al.  Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity , 2015, Science.

[58]  A. Bodas‐Salcedo,et al.  Evaluation of the Warm Rain Formation Process in Global Models with Satellite Observations , 2015 .

[59]  Riko Oki,et al.  The EarthCARE Satellite: The Next Step Forward in Global Measurements of Clouds, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Radiation , 2015 .

[60]  Andrew Gettelman,et al.  Advanced two-moment bulk microphysics for global models. Part I: off-line tests and comparison with other schemes. , 2015 .

[61]  M. Maahn,et al.  How does the spaceborne radar blind zone affect derived surface snowfall statistics in polar regions? , 2014 .

[62]  David Hudak,et al.  Estimating snow microphysical properties using collocated multisensor observations , 2014 .

[63]  M. Manton,et al.  A Climatology of the Precipitation over the Southern Ocean as Observed at Macquarie Island , 2014 .

[64]  C. Naud,et al.  Evaluation of ERA-Interim and MERRA Cloudiness in the Southern Ocean , 2014 .

[65]  Simone Tanelli,et al.  Evaluation of EarthCARE Cloud Profiling Radar Doppler Velocity Measurements in Particle Sedimentation Regimes , 2014 .

[66]  Tsuyoshi Koshiro,et al.  Origins of the Solar Radiation Biases over the Southern Ocean in CFMIP2 Models , 2014 .

[67]  W. Collins,et al.  Evaluation of climate models , 2013 .

[68]  J. Jensen,et al.  In situ observations of supercooled liquid clouds over the Southern Ocean during the HIAPER Pole‐to‐Pole Observation campaigns , 2013 .

[69]  W. Collins,et al.  The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research , 2013 .

[70]  G. Cesana,et al.  Evaluation of the cloud thermodynamic phase in a climate model using CALIPSO‐GOCCP , 2013 .

[71]  Yunyan Zhang,et al.  Factors Controlling the Vertical Extent of Fair-Weather Shallow Cumulus Clouds over Land: Investigation of Diurnal-Cycle Observations Collected at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site , 2013 .

[72]  A. Bodas‐Salcedo,et al.  The Surface Downwelling Solar Radiation Surplus over the Southern Ocean in the Met Office Model: The Role of Midlatitude Cyclone Clouds , 2012 .

[73]  Alain Protat,et al.  A study on the low‐altitude clouds over the Southern Ocean using the DARDAR‐MASK , 2012 .

[74]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[75]  Karen L. Johnson,et al.  Ka-Band ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) Instrument Handbook , 2012 .

[76]  M. Manton,et al.  A Three-Year Climatology of Cloud-Top Phase over the Southern Ocean and North Pacific , 2011 .

[77]  S. Ghan,et al.  Representation of Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds and the Wegener-Bergeron- Findeisen Process in Climate Models: Perspectives from a Cloud-Resolving Study , 2011 .

[78]  A. Bodas‐Salcedo,et al.  Dreary state of precipitation in global models , 2010 .

[79]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Simulation of Present-Day and Twenty-First-Century Energy Budgets of the Southern Oceans , 2010 .

[80]  David M. Winker,et al.  Fully Automated Detection of Cloud and Aerosol Layers in the CALIPSO Lidar Measurements , 2009 .

[81]  R. Marchand,et al.  A description of hydrometeor layer occurrence statistics derived from the first year of merged Cloudsat and CALIPSO data , 2009 .

[82]  Steven D. Miller,et al.  Rainfall retrieval over the ocean with spaceborne W‐band radar , 2009 .

[83]  U. Lohmann,et al.  Global simulations of aerosol processing in clouds , 2008 .

[84]  Oleg A. Krasnov,et al.  Continuous Evaluation of Cloud Profiles in Seven Operational Models Using Ground-Based Observations , 2007 .

[85]  Yoko Tsushima,et al.  Importance of the mixed-phase cloud distribution in the control climate for assessing the response of clouds to carbon dioxide increase: a multi-model study , 2006 .

[86]  R. Hogan,et al.  The Retrieval of Ice Water Content from Radar Reflectivity Factor and Temperature and Its Use in Evaluating a Mesoscale Model , 2006 .

[87]  C. Bretherton,et al.  Reflectivity and rain rate in and below drizzling stratocumulus , 2004 .

[88]  Harm J. J. Jonker,et al.  Size Distributions and Dynamical Properties of Shallow Cumulus Clouds from Aircraft Observations and Satellite Data , 2003 .

[89]  E. O'connor,et al.  The CloudSat mission and the A-train: a new dimension of space-based observations of clouds and precipitation , 2002 .

[90]  N. Fukuta,et al.  The Growth of Atmospheric Ice Crystals: A Summary of Findings in Vertical Supercooled Cloud Tunnel Studies , 1999 .

[91]  Steven J. Ghan,et al.  A parameterization of aerosol activation: 1. Single aerosol type , 1998 .

[92]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  Carbon Dioxide and Climate. The Impact of Cloud Parameterization , 1993 .

[93]  W. Gates.  AMIP: The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. , 1992 .

[94]  J. Mitchell,et al.  C02 and climate: a missing feedback? , 1989, Nature.

[95]  J. Curry,et al.  Cloud overlap statistics , 1989 .

[96]  R. Chervin,et al.  Global distribution of total cloud cover and cloud type amounts over the ocean , 1988 .

[97]  L. Jenne,et al.  Global distribution of total cloud cover and cloud type amounts over land , 1986 .

[98]  R. Carey.  Atmospheric Science: An Introductory Survey , 1978 .

[99]  A. Bemis,et al.  A QUANTITATIVE STUDY OF THE “BRIGHT BAND” IN RADAR PRECIPITATION ECHOES , 1950 .

[100]  N. Adams.  Climate trends at Macquarie Island and expectations of future climate change in the sub-Antarctic , 2009 .

[101]  B. Stevens,et al.  Observations of Drizzle in Nocturnal Marine Stratocumulus , 2005 .

[102]  S. M. Marlais,et al.  An Overview of the Results of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP I) , 1999 .