Handbook of Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems

Abstract: Extremely large seismic loss due to a catastrophic earthquake is a serious concern for risk management of multiple buildings and infrastructure. In particular, accurate modelling of the upper right tail of seismic loss distribution is important for insurers and reinsurers. This study discusses a novel statistical approach for characterising the probability distribution of seismic loss of an insurance portfolio based on extreme value theory and copula. Its effectiveness is verified through a numerical example involving seismic loss estimation of multiple wood-frame houses in Vancouver, Canada. The proposed approach demonstrates good modelling capability with respect to the earthquake-engineering-based model, and is useful for more complex risk management problems.

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