Urban population estimation based on residential buildings volume using IKONOS-2 images and lidar data

ABSTRACT This paper presents a methodological approach to estimation of urban population using the volume of single houses and high-rise residential buildings obtained from an IKONOS-2 ortho-image and light detection and raging (lidar) data. The estimates are directly executed at the finest scale level (i.e. the housing unit) and are then aggregated at the census district level for further validation with the aid of official data supplied by the local and federal governments. Unlike prior works, this study executes a thorough assessment of horizontal and elevation accuracy for the IKONOS-2 and lidar data used in the experiment. The methodological stages are threefold: the construction of a 3D city model, the accuracy assessment of the ortho-image and digital surface models (DSMs), and the quantification of urban population. The validation was accomplished by means of linear regression and associated hypothesis tests, considering the estimated population and the reference data. The results showed that there was a systematic underestimation of population. On average, the conducted estimates assessed 31 fewer inhabitants per district and lie 1.35% below the expected values given by the reference data. In spite of the observed underestimation, the estimated population can be regarded as equivalent to the population provided by the reference data at a 1% level of significance.

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