Re-Creating Banking Networks under Decreasing Fixed Costs

Theory emphasizes the central role of the structure of networks in the behavior of financial systems and their response to policy. Real-world networks, however, are rarely directly observable: Banks? assets and liabilities are typically known, but not who is lending how much and to whom. We first show how to simulate realistic networks that are based on balance-sheet information by minimizing costs where there is a fixed cost to forming a link. Second, we also show how to do this for a model with fixed costs that are decreasing in the number of links. To approach the optimization problem, we develop a new algorithm based on the transportation planning literature. Computational experiments find that the resulting networks are not only consistent with the balance sheets, but also resemble real-world financial networks in their density (which is sparse but not minimally dense) and in their core-periphery and disassortative structure.

[1]  M. Tumminello,et al.  Networked Relationships in the e-MID Interbank Market: A Trading Model with Memory , 2014, 1403.3638.

[2]  Guido Caldarelli,et al.  Bootstrapping Topological Properties and Systemic Risk of Complex Networks Using the Fitness Model , 2012, Journal of Statistical Physics.

[3]  Mark E. Paddrik,et al.  An Agent-Based Approach to Interbank Market Lending Decisions and Risk Implications , 2018, Inf..

[4]  Rodney Garratt,et al.  The missing links : A global study on uncovering fi nancial network structures from partial data 夽 , 2018 .

[5]  Thomas Lux,et al.  Network effects and systemic risk in the banking sector , 2016 .

[6]  Anne-Caroline Hüser,et al.  Too Interconnected to Fail: A Survey of the Interbank Networks Literature , 2015 .

[7]  Christoffer Kok,et al.  Assessing interbank contagion using simulated networks , 2013, Comput. Manag. Sci..

[8]  D. Garlaschelli,et al.  Reconstruction methods for networks: The case of economic and financial systems , 2018, Physics Reports.

[9]  Franklin Allen,et al.  Financial Contagion , 2000, Journal of Political Economy.

[10]  Iman van Lelyveld,et al.  A Dynamic Stochastic Network Model of the Unsecured Interbank Lending Market , 2014 .

[11]  Martin G. Everett,et al.  Models of core/periphery structures , 2000, Soc. Networks.

[12]  Christian Upper,et al.  Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is There a Danger of Contagion? , 2002, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[13]  P. Glasserman,et al.  Contagion in Financial Networks , 2015 .

[14]  C. D. Gelatt,et al.  Optimization by Simulated Annealing , 1983, Science.

[15]  Russell L. Ackoff,et al.  Introduction to operations research , 1957 .

[16]  Qianting Ma,et al.  Co-Loan Network of Chinese Banking System Based on Listed Companies’ Loan Data , 2018 .

[17]  Jean-Charles Rochet,et al.  Systemic risk, interbank relations and liquidity provision by the Central Bank , 2000 .

[18]  Klavdiya O. Bochenina,et al.  A Simulation Tool for Exploring the Evolution of Temporal Interbank Networks , 2017, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[19]  Thomas Lux,et al.  Emergence of a core-periphery structure in a simple dynamic model of the interbank market , 2015 .

[20]  Giulio Cimini,et al.  Systemic Risk Analysis on Reconstructed Economic and Financial Networks , 2014, Scientific Reports.

[21]  Iman van Lelyveld,et al.  Finding the core: Network structure in interbank markets , 2014 .

[22]  Jianmin He,et al.  Interbank lending, network structure and default risk contagion , 2018 .

[23]  Hong Fan,et al.  The Stability of Banking System Based on Network Structure: An Overview , 2018 .

[24]  Agostino Capponi,et al.  Systemic Risk Mitigation in Financial Networks , 2015 .

[25]  Gabriel Montes-Rojas,et al.  The role of bank relationships in the interbank market , 2015 .

[26]  João F. Cocco,et al.  Lending Relationships in the Interbank Market , 2003 .

[27]  Iman van Lelyveld,et al.  A Dynamic Network Model of the Unsecured Interbank Lending Market , 2015 .

[28]  Giulia Iori,et al.  The effects of interbank networks on efficiency and stability in a macroeconomic agent-based model , 2018, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

[29]  Benjamin Miranda Tabak,et al.  Network structure analysis of the Brazilian interbank market , 2016 .

[30]  Tao Xu,et al.  Multi-channel Contagion in Dynamic interbank Market Network , 2016, Adv. Complex Syst..

[31]  Ben R. Craig,et al.  Interbank Tiering and Money Center Banks , 2010 .

[32]  Thomas Lux,et al.  Network analysis of the e-MID overnight money market: the informational value of different aggregation levels for intrinsic dynamic processes , 2013, Comput. Manag. Sci..

[33]  Kartik Anand,et al.  Filling in the blanks: network structure and interbank contagion , 2014, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[34]  Mathias Drehmann,et al.  Measuring the Systemic Importance of Interconnected Banks , 2011 .

[35]  Enrico Schumann,et al.  Numerical Methods and Optimization in Finance , 2011 .