Case-based estimation of the risk of enterobiasis

OBJECTIVE To introduce an original case-based machine learning (ML) and prediction system Constud and its application on tabular data for estimation of the risk of enterobiasis among nursery school children in Estonia. METHODS AND MATERIALS The system consists of a software application and a knowledge base of observation data, parameters, and results. The data were obtained from anal swabs for the diagnosis of enterobiasis, from questionnaires for children's parents, observations in nursery schools and interviews with supervisors of the groups. The total number of studied children was 1905. Ten parallel ML processes were conducted to find the best set of weights for features and cases. RESULTS The best goodness-of-fit according to the true skill statistic (TSS) was 0.381. Approximately equal fit can be reached using different sets of features. Cross-validation TSS of logit-regression and classification tree models was <0.24. In addition to the higher prediction fit, Constud is not sensitive to missing values of explanatory variables. The overall prevalence of enterobiasis was 22.8%; the mean of risk estimations was 47.8%. The overestimation of the prevalence in risk calculations can be interpreted as an inefficacy of the single swab analysis, or may be due to the relative constancy of the risk compared to the lability of infection and the applied objective function. CONCLUSIONS In addition to the higher prediction fit, Constud is not sensitive to missing values of explanatory variables. The main risk factors of enterobiasis among nursery school children were the child's age, communication partners, habits, and cleanness of rooms in the nursery school. Mixed age groups at nursery schools also enhance the risk.

[1]  Leif Østergaard,et al.  Applying instance-based techniques to prediction of final outcome in acute stroke , 2005, Artif. Intell. Medicine.

[2]  María Acosta,et al.  [Enterobiasis among schoolchildren in a rural population from Estado Falcón, Venezuela, and its relation with socioeconomic level]. , 2002, Investigacion clinica.

[3]  María Acosta,et al.  Enterobiasis en escolares de una población rural del Estado Falcón, Venezuela y su relación con el nivel socio-económico , 2002 .

[4]  Isabelle Bichindaritz,et al.  Medical applications in case-based reasoning , 2005, The Knowledge Engineering Review.

[5]  K. Remm.  Case-based predictions for species and habitat mapping , 2004 .

[6]  David W. Aha,et al.  The omnipresence of case-based reasoning in science and application , 1998, Knowl. Based Syst..

[7]  H J Yoon,et al.  Enterobius vermicularis egg positive rate of pre-school children in Chunchon, Korea (1999). , 2000, The Korean journal of parasitology.

[8]  Markus Nilsson,et al.  Advancements and Trends in Medical Case-Based Reasoning: An Overview of Systems and System Development , 2004, FLAIRS.

[9]  Kyoung-jae Kim,et al.  Global optimization of case-based reasoning for breast cytology diagnosis , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[10]  Lida Xu,et al.  A hybrid system applied to epidemic screening , 2000, Expert Syst. J. Knowl. Eng..

[11]  K. Cox,et al.  Stories as case knowledge: case knowledge as stories , 2001, Medical education.

[12]  Won Hee Kim,et al.  A survey of Enterobius vermicularis infection among children on western and southern coastal islands of the Republic of Korea. , 2005, The Korean journal of parasitology.

[13]  Luigi Portinale,et al.  Cased-Based Reasoning for medical knowledge-based systems , 2001, Int. J. Medical Informatics.

[14]  E. Plaza,et al.  Individual prognosis of diabetes long-term risks: a CBR approach. , 2001, Methods of information in medicine.

[15]  Masaharu Miki,et al.  Consumption of uncooked deer meat as a risk factor for hepatitis E virus infection: An age‐ and sex‐matched case‐control study , 2004, Journal of medical virology.

[16]  M. Frize,et al.  Clinical decision-support systems for intensive care units using case-based reasoning. , 2000, Medical engineering & physics.

[17]  E. Gale,et al.  A missing link in the hygiene hypothesis? , 2002, Diabetologia.

[18]  Rainer Schmidt,et al.  Case-based reasoning for antibiotics therapy advice: an investigation of retrieval algorithms and prototypes , 2001, Artif. Intell. Medicine.

[19]  Omri Allouche,et al.  Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS) , 2006 .

[20]  Ralph Bergmann,et al.  Case-based reasoning for medical decision support tasks: The Inreca approach , 1998, Artif. Intell. Medicine.

[21]  Rainer Schmidt,et al.  PREDICTING INFLUENZA WAVES WITH HEALTH INSURANCE DATA , 2006, Comput. Intell..

[22]  R. Schweiger,et al.  Towards case-based performance measures: uncovering deficiencies in applied medical care. , 2001, Journal of evaluation in clinical practice.

[23]  Min-Ho Choi,et al.  Prevalence and risk factors for enterobiasis among preschool children in a metropolitan city in Korea , 2003, Parasitology Research.

[24]  M. G. Valorani,et al.  –to: Gale EAM (2002) A missing link in the hygiene hypothesis? Diabetologia 45:588–592 , 2003, Diabetologia.

[25]  M. Apezteguía,et al.  Enterobius vermicularis infection among population of General Mansilla, Argentina. , 2004, World journal of gastroenterology.

[26]  Se-Hak Chun,et al.  New knowledge extraction technique using probability for case‐based reasoning: application to medical diagnosis , 2006, Expert Syst. J. Knowl. Eng..

[27]  Luigi Portinale,et al.  Special issue on case-based reasoning in the health sciences , 2007, Applied Intelligence.

[28]  Rainer Schmidt,et al.  Using Prototypical Cases and Prototypicality Measures for Diagnosis of Dysmorphic Syndromes , 2006, KES.

[29]  Mare Remm,et al.  Distribution of enterobiasis among nursery school children in SE Estonia and of other helminthiases in Estonia , 2006, Parasitology Research.

[30]  D. Cazorla,et al.  Enterobius vermicularis infection in preschool and schoolchildren of six rural communities from a semiarid region of Venezuela: A clinical and epidemiological study , 2006, Helminthologia.

[31]  Isabelle Bichindaritz,et al.  Case-based reasoning in the health sciences: What's next? , 2006, Artif. Intell. Medicine.

[32]  P H Harasym,et al.  Diagnostic reasoning strategies and diagnostic success , 2003, Medical education.

[33]  J F Sung,et al.  Pinworm control and risk factors of pinworm infection among primary-school children in Taiwan. , 2001, The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene.

[34]  Ali Celiksöz,et al.  Egg positive rate of Enterobius vermicularis and Taenia spp. by cellophane tape method in primary school children in Sivas, Turkey. , 2005, The Korean journal of parasitology.