Aircraft Emission Scenarios Projected in Year 2015 for the NASA Technology Concept Aircraft (TCA) High Speed Civil Transport

Summary of global fuel burned and emissions calculated for fleets of500 and 1000 active HSCTs. (units = 106 kilograms/day) (NOx is in units of NO2 gram equivalent)Fleet Reference Fuel NOx HC CO500 active This work 198 1.01 0.06 0.57HSCTs (TCA)500 activeHSCTs__(Reference H.)_.Baughcum andHenderson, 1995225 1.40 0.08 0.661000 activeHSCTs (TCA)This work 375 1.93 0.11 1.081000 activeHSCTs(Reference H)Baughcum andHenderson, 1995429 2.71 0.16 1.30The global total fuel use and emissions calculated for the projected 2015subsonic fleet are summarized in Table 3-3. These results show the amount offuel burned and emissions calculated for the all subsonic fleet in 2015 and forthe subsonic fleet in the presence of fleets of 500 and 1000 active HSCTs. Italso tabulates the displacement of emissions by the subsonic fleet and the netchange in total global emissions due to scheduled aircraft by the introduction offleets of high speed civil transports, based on the NASA technology conceptairplane (TCA). To put these results into perspective with total aviation sources,it would be necessary to combine the results for scheduled subsonic and HSCTaircraft (this work) with those projected for charter, military, general aviation, anddomestic CIS/China (Landau, et aL, 1994; Mortlock and van Alstyne, 1998).That is beyond the scope of the current work.It seems very unlikely that large fleets of supersonic transports would bein operation by 2015 and thus supersonic fleets of this size would arise in lateryears in which the overall subsonic fleet would be larger. The fraction of the totalair traffic emissions due to supersonic aircraft will depend on both the size of thesupersonic fleet and the existing subsonic fleet.9