Corruption and Creditworthiness: Evidence from Sovereign Credit Ratings ⁄

We estimate the impact of corruption on a country's creditworthiness. Corruption affects creditworthiness through its impact on the size of the formal sector of an economy. We find that creditworthiness, as measured by sovereign credit ratings, is decreasing in corruption. It follows from our benchmark estimates that a one standard deviation decrease in corruption improves sovereign credit ratings by almost a full rating category (e.g. BBB to A). On long term foreign currency denominated debt, this translates into annual savings of roughly $10,100 for every $1 million of debt.

[1]  J. Svensson Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 19, Number 3—Summer 2005—Pages 19–42 Eight Questions about Corruption , 2022 .

[2]  Sanjeev Gupta,et al.  Corruption and the Provision of Health Care and Education Services , 2000 .

[3]  S. Wei Local Corruption and Global Capital Flows , 2000 .

[4]  C. Bliss,et al.  Does Competition Kill Corruption? , 1997, Journal of Political Economy.

[5]  S. Edwards Ldc&Apos;S Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: an Empirical Investigation , 1983 .

[6]  Richard Cantor,et al.  Determinants and Impact of Sovereign Credit Ratings , 1996 .

[7]  Benjamin E. Hermalin,et al.  Risks to Lenders and Borrowers in International Capital Markets , 1999 .

[8]  Jeffrey M. Woodbridge Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data , 2002 .

[9]  H. D. Soto The Other Path , 2002 .

[10]  Simon Johnson,et al.  The Unofficial Economy in Transition , 1997 .

[11]  J. Eaton,et al.  Country Risk and the Organization of International Capital Transfer , 1987 .

[12]  Alexander W. Butler,et al.  Institutional Environment and Sovereign Credit Ratings , 2006 .

[13]  J. Eaton Debt Relief and the International Enforcement of Loan Contracts , 1990 .

[14]  R. Reinikka,et al.  Local Capture: Evidence from a Central Government Transfer Program in Uganda , 2004 .

[15]  Institutional Environment and Sovereign Credit Ratings , 2006 .

[16]  R. Di Tella,et al.  The Role of Wages and Auditing During a Crackdown on Corruption in the City of Buenos Aires , 2001 .

[17]  A. Sy Emerging Market Bond Spreads and Sovereign Credit Ratings: Reconciling Market Views with Economic Fundamentals , 2001, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[18]  David S. Landes,et al.  The Wealth and Poverty of Nations , 2001 .

[19]  Florencio López‐de‐Silanes,et al.  Law and Finance , 1996, Journal of Political Economy.

[20]  J. Lambsdorff How Corruption Affects Productivity , 2003 .

[21]  A. Alesina,et al.  Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance , 2003 .

[22]  R. Gerlagh,et al.  Corruption's Effect on Growth and its Transmission Channels , 2004 .

[23]  Kevin M. Murphy,et al.  Why Is Rent-Seeking So Costly to Growth? , 1993 .

[24]  Francis T. Lui,et al.  An Equilibrium Queuing Model of Bribery , 1985, Journal of Political Economy.

[25]  Francisco J. Ciocchini,et al.  Does Corruption Increase Emerging Market Bond Spreads , 2003 .

[26]  Jonathan Eaton,et al.  The Pure Theory of Country Risk , 1986 .

[27]  W. Easterly,et al.  Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions , 1997 .

[28]  Paolo Mauro,et al.  Corruption and the composition of government expenditure , 1998 .

[29]  S. Wei,et al.  How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors? , 1997, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[30]  Pietra Rivoli,et al.  Politics and Perceived Country Creditworthiness in International Banking , 1990 .

[31]  H. D. Soto The mystery of capital : the role of property rights in creating wealth and alleviating poverty , 2004 .

[32]  B. Olken Corruption and the costs of redistribution: Micro evidence from Indonesia , 2006 .

[33]  Helmut Reisen,et al.  Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings , 1997 .

[34]  A. Sy Emerging Market Bond Spreads and Sovereign Credit Ratings; Reconciling Market Views with Economic Fundamentals , 2001 .

[35]  H. Reisen Pensions, savings and capital flows : from ageing to emerging markets , 2000 .

[36]  J. Lambsdorff How corruption affects persistent capital flows , 2003 .

[37]  Kenneth S. Rogoff,et al.  Sovereign Debt: is to Forgive to Forget? , 1988 .

[38]  Corruption and Municipal Finance , 2004 .

[39]  J. Heckman Sample selection bias as a specification error , 1979 .

[40]  Dan Alger,et al.  Voting by proxy , 2006 .

[41]  Kevin M. Murphy,et al.  The Allocation of Talent: Implications for Growth , 1990 .

[42]  Hannes Winner,et al.  Evidence on corruption as an incentive for foreign direct investment , 2005 .

[43]  Kenneth Rogoff,et al.  The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation , 2002 .

[44]  Jakob Svensson,et al.  Are Corruption and Taxation Really Harmful to Growth? Firm-Level Evidence , 1999 .

[45]  Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth , 1997 .

[46]  C. Depken,et al.  Fiscal consequences of public corruption: Empirical evidence from state bond ratings , 2006 .