Predictive Security Analysis for Event-Driven Processes

This paper presents an approach for predictive security analysis in a business process execution environment. It is based on operational formal models and leverages process and threat analysis and simulation techniques in order to be able to dynamically relate events from different processes and architectural layers and evaluate them with respect to security requirements. Based on this, we present a blueprint of an architecture which can provide decision support by performing dynamic simulation and analysis while considering real-time process changes. It allows for the identification of close-future security-threatening process states and will output a predictive alert for the corresponding violation.