Potential Growth of the World Economy

This paper introduces a new framework for projecting potential growth of the world economy, emphasizing the contribution of information technology. We first analyze the sources of economic growth for the world economy, seven regions, and fourteen major economies during four periods--1989-1995, 1995-2000, 2000-2004, and 2004-2008. The contribution of investment in information technology has increased in all regions, but especially in industrialized economies and Developing Asia. We then project the potential growth rates of labor productivity and GDP for 122 economies over the ten-year period 2009-2019. Relative to historical growth for 1989-2008, we project lower growth rates for productivity and GDP.

[1]  S. A. Rice.  The United Nations Statistical Commission , 1946 .

[2]  Sulekha Patel,et al.  World development indicators 2009 , 2009 .

[3]  D. Jorgenson,et al.  A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence , 2007 .

[4]  鳥居 泰彦,et al.  世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators , 1998 .

[5]  D. Jorgenson,et al.  Blueprint for Expanded and Integrated U.S. Accounts: Review, Assessment, and Next Steps , 2006 .

[6]  David B. Wasshausen,et al.  Integrated GDP-Productivity Accounts , 2009 .

[7]  D. Jorgenson,et al.  Growth Accounting within the International Comparison Program , 2009 .

[8]  Paul Krugman,et al.  The Myth of Asia's Miracle , 1994 .

[9]  Remedios,et al.  COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES , 1601 .

[10]  A. Maddison.  Measuring and Interpreting World Economic Performance 1500-2001 , 2005 .

[11]  D. Jorgenson.  Information Technology and the U.S. Economy , 2001 .

[12]  D. Jorgenson.  Capital Theory and Investment Behavior , 1963 .

[13]  Dale W. Jorgenson,et al.  The Embodiment Hypothesis , 1966, Journal of Political Economy.

[14]  Designing a New Architecture for the U.S. National Accounts , 2010 .

[15]  Paul Schreyer,et al.  The OECD Productivity Manual: A Guide to the Measurement of Industry-Level and Aggregate Productivity , 2001 .

[16]  D. Jorgenson.  A New Architecture for the U.S. National Accounts , 2006 .

[17]  A. Maddison.  Measuring the Economic Performance of Transition Economies: Some Lessons from Chinese Experience , 2009 .

[18]  Mary O'Mahony,et al.  The productivity gap between Europe and the United States : Trends and causes , 2008 .

[19]  D. Jorgenson,et al.  Implementation of a New Architecture for the US National Accounts , 2009 .

[20]  Mary O'Mahony,et al.  Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database , 2009 .