Long-term peak demand prediction of 9 Japanese power utilities using radial basis function networks

Prediction of peak loads in Japan up to year 2010 is discussed using the radial basis function networks (RBFNs). In this study, total system load forecast reflecting the current and future trends is carried out for 9 power companies in Japan. Predictions were done for target years 2001 to 2010 respectively. Unlike short-term load forecasting, long-term load forecasting is mainly affected by economy factors rather than weather conditions. This study focuses on economical data that seem to have influence on long-term electric load demand. The data used are: actual yearly, incremental growth rate from previous year, and blend (actual and incremental growth rate from previous years). As the results, the maximum demands for 2001 through 2010 are predicted and is shown to be elevated from 171.42 GW to 198.60 GW for entire 9 Japanese Power Utilities. The annual average rate of load growth seen per ten years until 2010 is about 1.3%.

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