Probability model of stream quality due to runoff

The analysis of the water quality response of a stream receiving intermittent storm runoff is addressed within a probabilistic framework. Lognormally distributed runoff and stream flows and concentrations are assumed and cross correlations are explicitly included in the exact solution method. An approximate moment method is suggested which is suitable for rapid screening analyses. Both solutions can be used to provide a first level of analysis before embarking upon detailed time variable or Monte Carlo simulations.