PROBABILISTIC STABILITY ANALYSIS OF EARTH SLOPES

Abstract A method of probabilistic analysis of three-dimensional limit equilibrium stability of long earth slopes is presented and its application to earth embankment design is discussed. The method accounts for the spatial variability of the shear strength. It is in principle capable of accommodating frictional and cohesive components of shear strength as well as a spectrum of drainage conditions. The probabilistic model predicts that slope failure events involving very long or very short widths of the failure zone are highly improbable. The paper evaluates the probability of a sliding failure at a specific location, as well as the risk that a failure will occur anywhere along a slope of given total length.