The Oil Security Metrics Model: A Tool for Evaluating the Prospective Oil Security Benefits of DOE's Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy R&D Programs

Energy technology RD NRC, 2005). ("The Congress continued to express its interest in R&D benefits assessment by providing funds for the NRC to build on the retrospective methodology to develop a methodology for assessing prospective benefits." NRC, 2005, p. ES-2) In 2004, the NRC Committee on Prospective Benefits of DOE's Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy R&D Programs published a report recommending a new framework and principles for prospective benefits assessment. The Committee explicitly deferred the issue of estimating security benefits to future work. Recognizing the need for a rigorous framework for assessing the energy security benefits of its R&D programs, the DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) developed a framework and approach for defining energy security metrics for R&D programs to use in gauging the energy security benefits of their programs (Lee, 2005). This report describes methods for estimating the prospective oil security benefits of EERE's R&D programs that are consistent with the methodologies of the NRC (2005) Committee and that build on Lee's (2005) framework. Its objective is to define and implement a method that makes use of the NRC's typology of prospective benefits and methodological framework, satisfies the NRC's criteria for prospective benefits evaluation, and permits measurement of that portion of the prospective energy security benefits of EERE's R&D portfolio related to oil. While the Oil Security Metrics (OSM) methodology described in this report has been specifically developed to estimate the prospective oil security benefits of DOE's R&D programs, it is also applicable to other strategies and policies aimed at changing U.S. petroleum demand.

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