Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’

Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

[1]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Earth’s Energy Imbalance , 2014 .

[2]  S. Levitus,et al.  Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems , 2007 .

[3]  B. Jacobsen,et al.  Evidence for external forcing of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since termination of the Little Ice Age , 2014, Nature Communications.

[4]  R. Knutti,et al.  Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled , 2014 .

[5]  Dean Roemmich,et al.  Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006 , 2015 .

[6]  Martin B. Stolpe,et al.  Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures , 2015 .

[7]  Martin Wild,et al.  Disentangling greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling to reveal Earth[rsquor]s climate sensitivity , 2016 .

[8]  S. Klein,et al.  Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth/'s energy budget , 2016 .

[9]  D. Smeed,et al.  Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations , 2015, Nature.

[10]  Thomas C. Peterson,et al.  Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus , 2015, Science.

[11]  David Rind,et al.  How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades? , 2009 .

[12]  J. Willis,et al.  Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating , 2015, Science.

[13]  F. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade , 2013 .

[14]  D. Easterling,et al.  Homogeneity adjustments of in situ atmospheric climate data: a review , 1998 .

[15]  J. Church,et al.  Ocean temperatures chronicle the ongoing warming of Earth , 2016 .

[16]  S. Xie,et al.  Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus , 2016, Nature Communications.

[17]  Heikki Kauppi,et al.  Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008 , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[18]  J. Vernier,et al.  Significant radiative impact of volcanic aerosol in the lowermost stratosphere , 2015, Nature Communications.

[19]  Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez,et al.  The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. , 2001 .

[20]  K. Trenberth,et al.  The flow of energy through the earth's climate system , 2004 .

[21]  O. Geoffroy,et al.  The recent global warming hiatus: What is the role of Pacific variability? , 2015 .

[22]  D. McNeall,et al.  Importance of the deep ocean for estimating decadal changes in Earth's radiation balance , 2011 .

[23]  R. Wu,et al.  The global warming hiatus—a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation , 2016, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

[24]  G. Meehl,et al.  Intensification of decadal and multi-decadal sea level variability in the western tropical Pacific during recent decades , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[25]  S. Power,et al.  Inability of CMIP5 Models to Simulate Recent Strengthening of the Walker Circulation: Implications for Projections , 2015 .

[26]  N. Gillett,et al.  Surface response to stratospheric aerosol changes in a coupled atmosphere–ocean model , 2013 .

[27]  I. Medhaug,et al.  North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation , 2011 .

[28]  K. Schuckmann,et al.  How well can we derive Global Ocean Indicators from Argo data , 2011 .

[29]  G. Meehl,et al.  Case studies for initialized decadal hindcasts and predictions for the Pacific region , 2012 .

[30]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  An apparent hiatus in global warming? , 2013 .

[31]  Adam S. Phillips,et al.  Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming , 2014 .

[32]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming , 2014 .

[33]  Aixue Hu,et al.  Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to twentieth-century global surface temperature trends , 2016 .

[34]  P. Jones,et al.  Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850 , 2006 .

[35]  A. Cazenave,et al.  Sea level budget over 2005–2013: missing contributions and data errors , 2015 .

[36]  S. Piao,et al.  The recent hiatus in global warming of the land surface: Scale‐dependent breakpoint occurrences in space and time , 2015 .

[37]  John M. Wallace,et al.  A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature , 2008, Nature.

[38]  E. Fischer,et al.  A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target , 2016 .

[39]  H. Drange,et al.  Global and regional surface cooling in a warming climate: a multi-model analysis , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[40]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Impact of aerosol radiative effects on 2000–2010 surface temperatures , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[41]  N. Gillett,et al.  Improved constraints on 21st‐century warming derived using 160 years of temperature observations , 2012 .

[42]  Stephan Lewandowsky,et al.  On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[43]  Nick Rayner,et al.  Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 1. Measurement and sampling uncertainties , 2011 .

[44]  Chunlüe Zhou,et al.  Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature , 2016, Scientific Reports.

[45]  M. Lockwood.  Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum , 2010, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[46]  Y. Masumoto,et al.  Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[47]  Ed Hawkins,et al.  Pause for thought , 2014 .

[48]  P. Jones,et al.  Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set , 2012 .

[49]  B. Santer,et al.  Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity , 2015 .

[50]  Michael E. Mann,et al.  Observed and Simulated Multidecadal Variability in the Northern Hemisphere , 1999 .

[51]  Eric Rignot,et al.  Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008 , 2011 .

[52]  David R. Doelling,et al.  Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty , 2012 .

[53]  M. Balmaseda,et al.  Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins , 2014 .

[54]  T. Knutson,et al.  Observed and Simulated Fingerprints of Multidecadal Climate Variability and Their Contributions to Periods of Global SST Stagnation , 2017 .

[55]  M. Knörnschild,et al.  Corrigendum: Bats host major mammalian paramyxoviruses , 2014, Nature Communications.

[56]  John Kennedy,et al.  Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenization , 2011 .

[57]  P. Huybers,et al.  Revisiting Whether Recent Surface Temperature Trends Agree with the CMIP5 Ensemble , 2016 .

[58]  Arthur H. Rosenfeld,et al.  A New Estimate of the AverageEarth Surface Land TemperatureSpanning 1753 to 2011 , 2013 .

[59]  J. Pommereau,et al.  Major influence of tropical volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol layer during the last decade , 2011 .

[60]  M. Mann,et al.  On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO , 2014 .

[61]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Potential tropical Atlantic impacts on Pacific decadal climate trends , 2016 .

[62]  C. Deser,et al.  Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate , 2012 .

[63]  Martin Wild,et al.  Global dimming and brightening: A review , 2009 .

[64]  Gregory C. Johnson,et al.  Robust warming of the global upper ocean , 2010, Nature.

[65]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  A call for new approaches to quantifying biases in observations of sea-surface temperature , 2017 .

[66]  J. Wallace,et al.  A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production , 1997 .

[67]  Keith W. Dixon,et al.  Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability , 2013 .

[68]  Wonsun Park,et al.  Pacific origin of the abrupt increase in Indian Ocean heat content during the warming hiatus , 2015 .

[69]  D. Hathaway.  The Solar Cycle , 2010, Living reviews in solar physics.

[70]  T. Zhou,et al.  The formation of the recent cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and the associated climate impacts: A competition of global warming, IPO, and AMO , 2014 .

[71]  Arthur H. Rosenfeld,et al.  A New Estimate of the AverageEarth Surface Land TemperatureSpanning 1753 to 2011 , 2013 .

[72]  Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn,et al.  Building confidence in climate model projections: an analysis of inferences from fit , 2017 .

[73]  R. Neely,et al.  The Persistently Variable “Background” Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change , 2011, Science.

[74]  Mathew Barlow,et al.  Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends , 2012 .

[75]  Michael F. Wehner,et al.  Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale , 2011 .

[76]  Cecilia M. Bitz,et al.  Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks , 2012 .

[77]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown , 2016 .

[78]  Reto Knutti,et al.  Feedbacks, climate sensitivity and the limits of linear models , 2015, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[79]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and Intercomparisons , 2014 .

[80]  M. Mann,et al.  Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures , 2015, Science.

[81]  P. Thorne,et al.  Investigating the recent apparent hiatus in surface temperature increases: 1. Construction of two 30‐member Earth System Model ensembles , 2015 .

[82]  L. Horowitz,et al.  Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century , 2016, Nature Communications.

[83]  J. Kennedy,et al.  A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[84]  Stephan Lewandowsky,et al.  Seepage: Climate change denial and its effect on the scientific community , 2015 .

[85]  K. Trenberth,et al.  The Annual Cycle of the Energy Budget. Part I: Global Mean and Land–Ocean Exchanges , 2008 .

[86]  Global mean and land-ocean exchanges , 2007 .

[87]  W. Kellogg.  An apparent moratorium on the greenhouse warming due to the deep ocean , 1993 .

[88]  Masson-Delmotte,et al.  The Physical Science Basis , 2007 .

[89]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Effects of instrumentation changes on sea surface temperature measured in situ , 2010, WIREs Climate Change.

[90]  Gabriele C. Hegerl,et al.  A Comparison of Surface Air Temperature Variability in Three 1000-Yr Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model Integrations , 2000 .

[91]  G. Vecchi,et al.  A Link between the Hiatus in Global Warming and North American Drought , 2015 .

[92]  David R. Doelling,et al.  Toward Optimal Closure of the Earth's Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation Budget , 2009 .

[93]  John Marshall,et al.  Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review , 2016 .

[94]  Influence of tropical wind on global temperature from months to decades , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[95]  Hisashi Nakamura,et al.  The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited , 2016 .

[96]  B. Sinha,et al.  The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate , 2016 .

[97]  A. Cazenave,et al.  The Sea Level Budget Since 2003: Inference on the Deep Ocean Heat Content , 2015, Surveys in Geophysics.

[98]  D. Parker.  Urban heat island effects on estimates of observed climate change , 2010 .

[99]  Peter J. Gleckler,et al.  Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise , 2008, Nature.

[100]  P. Thorne,et al.  Investigating the recent apparent hiatus in surface temperature increases: 2. Comparison of model ensembles to observational estimates , 2015 .

[101]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Further exploring and quantifying uncertainties for Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) version 4 (v4). , 2016 .

[102]  J. Willis,et al.  Deep-ocean contribution to sea level and energy budget not detectable over the past decade , 2014 .

[103]  Liping Zhang,et al.  Multidecadal North Atlantic sea surface temperature and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability in CMIP5 historical simulations , 2013 .

[104]  Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus , 2013 .

[105]  G. Meehl,et al.  Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming , 2014 .

[106]  Bernard De Saedeleer,et al.  Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming , 2016 .

[107]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Global analysis of night marine air temperature and its uncertainty since 1880: The HadNMAT2 data set , 2013 .

[108]  T. Laepple,et al.  Global and regional variability in marine surface temperatures , 2014 .

[109]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures , 2002 .

[110]  Nicolas Bellouin,et al.  Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. , 2012, Nature.

[111]  Jeff Knight,et al.  A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate , 2005 .

[112]  S. Solomon,et al.  Radiative Impacts of the 2011 Abrupt Drops in Water Vapor and Ozone in the Tropical Tropopause Layer , 2016 .

[113]  Full‐depth temperature trends in the northeastern Atlantic through the early 21st century , 2014 .

[114]  G. Meehl,et al.  Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation , 2013 .

[115]  J. Marotzke,et al.  Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends , 2015, Nature.

[116]  T. Wigley,et al.  Natural variability of the climate system and detection of the greenhouse effect , 1990, Nature.

[117]  Aixue Hu,et al.  Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods , 2011 .

[118]  K. Rosenlof,et al.  Stratospheric water vapor feedback , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[119]  Kevin Cowtan,et al.  Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth , 2016 .

[120]  N. Diffenbaugh,et al.  Debunking the climate hiatus , 2015, Climatic Change.

[121]  Y. Wang,et al.  The linkage between stratospheric water vapor and surface temperature in an observation-constrained coupled general circulation model , 2017, Climate Dynamics.

[122]  Richard P Allan,et al.  Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985–2012 , 2014, Geophysical research letters.

[123]  M. Collins,et al.  Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming , 2015 .

[124]  J. Hansen,et al.  Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications , 2005, Science.

[125]  J. Thepaut,et al.  A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets , 2017 .

[126]  J. Betancourt,et al.  A tree‐ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D. , 2004 .

[127]  J. Haywood,et al.  The impact of volcanic eruptions in the period 2000–2013 on global mean temperature trends evaluated in the HadGEM2‐ES climate model , 2014 .

[128]  S. Xie,et al.  Distinct energy budgets for anthropogenic and natural changes during global warming hiatus , 2016 .

[129]  Variations of the Global Net Air–Sea Heat Flux during the “Hiatus” Period (2001–10) , 2016 .

[130]  Carter Rl.  Patterns and mechanisms of bone metastases. , 1985 .

[131]  R. Greatbatch,et al.  Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024 , 2015 .

[132]  D. Battisti,et al.  The dependence of transient climate sensitivity and radiative feedbacks on the spatial pattern of ocean heat uptake , 2014 .

[133]  Helge Drange,et al.  External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability , 2010 .

[134]  Michael E. Mann,et al.  Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales , 1994 .

[135]  Papps To,et al.  Implications for projections , 1981 .

[136]  Lijing Cheng,et al.  Insights into Earth’s Energy Imbalance from Multiple Sources , 2016 .

[137]  R. Sutton,et al.  Atlantic Ocean Forcing of North American and European Summer Climate , 2005, Science.

[138]  P. Steerenberg,et al.  Targeting pathophysiological rhythms: prednisone chronotherapy shows sustained efficacy in rheumatoid arthritis. , 2010, Annals of the rheumatic diseases.

[139]  John E. Barnes,et al.  Increase in background stratospheric aerosol observed with lidar at Mauna Loa Observatory and Boulder, Colorado , 2009 .

[140]  M. England,et al.  Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st centuries , 2014 .

[141]  A. Floren,et al.  ' " ' " ' " . " ' " " " " " ' " ' " " " " " : ' " 1 , 2001 .

[142]  Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise , 2008, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[143]  John Abraham,et al.  Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005 , 2016 .

[144]  Ed Hawkins,et al.  The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming , 2013 .

[145]  N. Mantua,et al.  The Pacific Decadal Oscillation , 2002 .

[146]  Shang-Ping Xie,et al.  Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability , 2014 .

[147]  Clara Deser,et al.  Sea surface temperature variability: patterns and mechanisms. , 2010, Annual review of marine science.

[148]  F. Landerer,et al.  Pacific sea level rise patterns and global surface temperature variability , 2016 .

[149]  Is the greenhouse gas-climate signal hiding in the deep ocean? , 1993 .

[150]  M. England,et al.  Separating Internal Variability from the Externally Forced Climate Response , 2015 .

[151]  E. Fischer,et al.  Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models , 2016 .

[152]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content , 2013 .

[153]  A. Dessler,et al.  The impact of forcing efficacy on the equilibrium climate sensitivity , 2014 .

[154]  Masahiro Watanabe,et al.  Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus , 2014 .

[155]  Gavin A. Schmidt,et al.  Reconciling warming trends , 2014 .

[156]  D. Streets,et al.  Climate impacts of changing aerosol emissions since 1996 , 2014 .

[157]  F. Molteni,et al.  Atlantic forcing of Pacific decadal variability , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[158]  S. Solomon,et al.  Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming , 2010, Science.

[159]  Michael F. Wehner,et al.  Is the climate warming or cooling? , 2009 .

[160]  J. Curry,et al.  The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[161]  S. Xie,et al.  Atlantic-induced pan-tropical climate change over the past three decades , 2016 .

[162]  T. Stocker,et al.  Influence of the Thermohaline Circulation on Projected Sea Level Rise , 2000 .

[163]  K. Armour.  Projection and prediction: Climate sensitivity on the rise , 2016 .

[164]  Makiko Sato,et al.  Earth's energy imbalance and implications , 2011, 1105.1140.

[165]  G. Meehl,et al.  Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches , 2014 .

[166]  K. Taylor,et al.  Quantifying underestimates of long-term upper-ocean warming , 2014 .

[167]  S. Xie,et al.  Muted precipitation increase in global warming simulations: A surface evaporation perspective , 2008 .

[168]  T. Andrews,et al.  The inconstancy of the transient climate response parameter under increasing CO2 , 2015, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[169]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming , 2015 .

[170]  Saleh Abdalla,et al.  How robust is the recent strengthening of the Tropical Pacific trade winds? , 2014 .

[171]  R. Kerr.  Climate change. What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit. , 2009, Science.

[172]  Pierre Friedlingstein,et al.  Carbon Dioxide and Climate: Perspectives on a Scientific Assessment , 2013 .

[173]  Makiko Sato,et al.  Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change , 2014 .

[174]  Robert C. Wolpert,et al.  A Review of the , 1985 .

[175]  R. Halley,et al.  Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552 , 2009 .

[176]  Matthew D. Palmer,et al.  Internal variability of Earth’s energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models , 2014 .

[177]  Gregory C. Johnson,et al.  Warming of Global Abyssal and Deep Southern Ocean Waters between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to Global Heat and Sea Level Rise Budgets* , 2010 .

[178]  B. Hunt.  The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend , 2011 .

[179]  J. Hansen,et al.  Global temperature change , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[180]  E. Fischer,et al.  Contributions of atmospheric circulation variability and data coverage bias to the warming hiatus , 2015 .

[181]  S. Levitus,et al.  World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010 , 2012 .

[182]  James W. Hurrell,et al.  North Atlantic climate variability: phenomena, impacts and mechanisms , 2001 .

[183]  J. Mülmenstädt,et al.  Multi-model simulations of aerosol and ozone radiative forcing due to anthropogenic emission changes during the period 1990-2015 , 2017 .

[184]  Ed Hawkins,et al.  Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown , 2016 .

[185]  John Abraham,et al.  A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change , 2013, Reviews of Geophysics.

[186]  Chris E. Forest,et al.  Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades , 2016 .

[187]  J. Willis,et al.  Meridional overturning circulation and heat transport observations in the Atlantic Ocean [in 'state of the Climate in 2012'] , 2013 .

[188]  Guillaume Ramillien,et al.  Sea level budget over 2003-2008: A reevaluation from GRACE space gravimetry, satellite altimetry and Argo , 2009 .

[189]  W. Broecker,et al.  Does the ocean–atmosphere system have more than one stable mode of operation? , 1985, Nature.

[190]  Stephan Lewandowsky,et al.  Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase , 2014 .

[191]  Stephen Cusack,et al.  Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model , 2007, Science.

[192]  Agus Santoso,et al.  Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus , 2014 .

[193]  K. Cowtan,et al.  Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends , 2014 .

[194]  M. England,et al.  Robust warming projections despite the recent hiatus , 2015 .

[195]  M. Hughes,et al.  Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries , 1998 .

[196]  S. Xie,et al.  Seasonality of tropical Pacific decadal trends associated with the 21st century global warming hiatus , 2015 .

[197]  C. Willmott,et al.  Trends in hemispheric warm and cold anomalies , 2014 .

[198]  P. Kushner,et al.  Does External Forcing Interfere with the AMOC’s Influence on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature? , 2015 .

[199]  E. Cordero,et al.  Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[200]  L. Lee,et al.  Uncertainty in the magnitude of aerosol‐cloud radiative forcing over recent decades , 2014 .

[201]  C. Katsman,et al.  Tracing the upper ocean's “missing heat” , 2011 .

[202]  Francis W. Zwiers,et al.  Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years , 2013 .

[203]  Stefan Rahmstorf,et al.  Global temperature evolution 1979–2010 , 2011 .

[204]  Stephan Lewandowsky,et al.  The pause in global warming: Turning a routine fluctuation into a problem for science , 2016 .

[205]  M. Wild,et al.  Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University Disentangling greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling to reveal Earth's climate sensitivity , 2016 .

[206]  Andrew C. Parnell,et al.  Change points of global temperature , 2015 .

[207]  Yu Kosaka,et al.  Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling , 2013, Nature.

[208]  M. Boykoff,et al.  Media discourse on the climate slowdown , 2014 .

[209]  Reto Knutti,et al.  The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes , 2008 .

[210]  I. Kang,et al.  Tropical Pacific response to 20th century Atlantic warming , 2011 .

[211]  K. Tung,et al.  Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration , 2014, Science.

[212]  V. Aquila,et al.  Stratospheric variability contributed to and sustained the recent hiatus in Eurasian winter warming , 2017, Geophysical research letters.

[213]  J. Hansen,et al.  GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE , 2010 .

[214]  B. Stevens,et al.  Eurasian winter cooling in the warming hiatus of 1998–2012 , 2015 .

[215]  K. Trenberth,et al.  The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution? , 2016, Earth's future.

[216]  Carl A. Mears,et al.  Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature , 2014 .

[217]  M Höpfner,et al.  Stratospheric sulfur and its implications for radiative forcing simulated by the chemistry climate model EMAC , 2015, Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR.

[218]  Cheng Sun,et al.  NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability , 2013 .

[219]  Isaac M. Held,et al.  Importance of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficacy to Transient Climate Change , 2010 .

[220]  Reto Knutti,et al.  Energy budget constraints on climate response , 2013 .

[221]  E. Hawkins,et al.  The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions , 2009 .

[222]  G. Schmidt,et al.  Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings , 2016 .

[223]  A. Dessler,et al.  Cloud variations and the Earth's energy budget , 2011 .

[224]  Olle Häggström,et al.  Equilibrium climate sensitivity in light of observations over the warming hiatus , 2015 .

[225]  L. Kornblueh,et al.  Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector , 2008, Nature.

[226]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Tracking Earth's Energy , 2010, Science.

[227]  M. Kimoto,et al.  Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections , 2009 .

[228]  Tong Lee,et al.  Decadal phase change in large‐scale sea level and winds in the Indo‐Pacific region at the end of the 20th century , 2008 .

[229]  A. Clement,et al.  Spatial Patterns and Frequency of Unforced Decadal-Scale Changes in Global Mean Surface Temperature in Climate Models , 2016 .

[230]  R. Sutton,et al.  A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005 , 2016 .

[231]  James Hansen,et al.  An imperative to monitor Earth's energy imbalance , 2016 .

[232]  D. Shindell.  Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity , 2014 .