Hybrid Kalman Filters for Very Short-Term Load Forecasting and Prediction Interval Estimation

Very short-term load forecasting predicts the loads in electric power system one hour into the future in 5-min steps in a moving window manner. To quantify forecasting accuracy in real-time, the prediction interval estimates should also be produced online. Effective predictions with good prediction intervals are important for resource dispatch and area generation control, and help power market participants make prudent decisions. We previously presented a two level wavelet neural network method based on back propagation without estimating prediction intervals. This paper extends the previous work by using hybrid Kalman filters to produce forecasting with prediction interval estimates online. Based on data analysis, a neural network trained by an extended Kalman filter is used for the low-low frequency component to capture the near-linear relationship between the input load component and the output measurement, while neural networks trained by unscented Kalman filters are used for low-high and high frequency components to capture their nonlinear relationships. The overall variance estimate is then derived and evaluated for prediction interval estimation. Testing results demonstrate the effectiveness of hybrid Kalman filters for capturing different features of load components, and the accuracy of the overall variance estimate derived based on a data set from ISO New England.

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