Probabilistic Analysis and Risk Evaluation of Highway Rear-end Collision

In terms of car-following critical condition,the characteristics of freeway rear-end mechanism was analyzed.The four kinds of situation of freeway rear-end collision were studied and the quantified index of rear-end collision risk was inferred according to the rear-end collision kinetic theory.Considering the random effect of driver's reaction time,brake deceleration,the Monte Carlo method was used to calculate the value of rear-end collision risk.The scope of threshold value was then obtained by fuzzy clustering method.The results can provide the theoretical foundation for early warning of freeway driving safety.