A 15-year climatology of wind pattern impacts on surface ozone in Houston, Texas

Abstract Houston is recognized for its large petrochemical industrial facilities providing abundant radicals for tropospheric ozone formation. Fortunately, maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) surface ozone concentrations have declined in Houston (− 0.6 ± 0.3 ppbv yr − 1 ) during the summers (i.e., May to September) of 2000 to 2014, possibly due to the reductions in precursor emissions by effective control policies. However, it is also possible that changes in meteorological variables have affected ozone concentrations. This study focused on the impact of long-term wind patterns which have the highest impact on ozone in Houston. The analysis of long-term wind patterns can benefit surface ozone studies by 1) providing wind patterns that distinctly changed ozone levels, 2) investigating the frequency of patterns and the respective changes and 3) estimating ozone trends in specific wind patterns that local emissions are mostly involved, thus separating emissions impacts from meteorology to some extent. To this end, the 900-hPa flow patterns in summers of 2000 to 2014 were clustered in seven classes (C1–C7) by deploying an unsupervised partitioning method. We confirm the characteristics of the clusters from a backward trajectory analysis, monitoring networks, and a regional chemical transport model simulation. The results indicate that Houston has experienced a statistically significant downward trend (− 0.6 ± 0.4 day yr − 1 ) of the cluster of weak easterly and northeasterly days (C4), when the highest fraction of ozone exceedances (MDA8 > 70 ppbv) occurred. This suggests that the reduction in ozone precursors was not the sole reason for the decrease in ozone exceedance days (− 1.5 ± 0.6 day yr − 1 ). Further, to examine the efficiency of control policies intended to reduce the amount of ozone, we estimated the trend of MDA8 ozone in C4 and C5 (weak winds) days when local emissions are primarily responsible for high ambient ozone levels. Both C4 and C5 show a large reduction in the 95th percentile and summertime trends mainly due to effective control strategies. Based on the 5th percentile daytime ozone for C1 (strong southeasterly wind) in coastal sites, this study found that the cleanest air masses that Houston received became more polluted during the summer of 2000–2014 by 1–3 ppbv. Though this study focused on Houston, the analysis method presented could generally be used to estimate ozone trends in other regions where surface ozone is dominantly influenced by both wind patterns and local emissions.

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