Estimation of global sensitivity indices for models with dependent variables

Abstract A novel approach for estimation variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent variables is presented. Both the first order and total sensitivity indices are derived as generalizations of Sobolʼ sensitivity indices. Formulas and Monte Carlo numerical estimates similar to Sobolʼ formulas are derived. A copula-based approach is proposed for sampling from arbitrary multivariate probability distributions. A good agreement between analytical and numerical values of the first order and total indices for considered test cases is obtained. The behavior of sensitivity indices depends on the relative predominance of interactions and correlations. The method is shown to be efficient and general.

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