The Demand Effects of Product Recommendation Networks: An Empirical Analysis of Network Diversity and Stability

With the increasing popularity of product recommendation networks in e-commerce, researchers and practitioners are eager to understand how they can strategically manage product assortments through the manipulation of such networks to drive demand. We examine product recommendation networks in e-commerce to investigate how the demand of a product is influenced by product network attributes in terms of network diversity and network stability. We also examine whether the demand of a product is influenced by both the incoming network and the outgoing network, and if the effects differ between co-view and co-purchase recommendation networks. Using data from Tmall.com for four product categories, we apply linear panel data models to examine the impact of network diversity and network stability on product demand, controlling for relevant factors at the individual product, pricing, product network, product category, and time unit levels. Importantly, we account for implicit demand correlation (i.e., substitution and complementarity) and potential simultaneity of demand and network structures. We unravel several important findings. First, a 1% increase in the category diversity of the incoming (outgoing) co-purchase network of a product is associated with a 0.011% (0.012%) increase (decrease) in the product's demand. Second, a 1% increase in the stability of the outgoing co-purchase network is associated with a 0.012% decrease in demand. Third, the demand effects of network diversity and stability are both stronger in the co-purchase network, compared to their insignificant effects in the co-view network. Thus, this research provides theoretical contributions in terms of the economic effects of product recommendation networks through its focus on network diversity and stability in incoming/ outgoing and co-view/co-purchase networks. We also provide notable implications for recommendation-based product marketing and recommendation systems design.

[1]  Girish N. Punj The formulation, empirical specification and testing of a model of consumer information search behavior for new automobiles , 1983 .

[2]  Leigh McAlister,et al.  Consumers’ Perceptions of the Assortment Offered in a Grocery Category: The Impact of Item Reduction: , 1998 .

[3]  Akshay R. Rao,et al.  The Effect of Prior Knowledge on Price Acceptability and the Type of Information Examined , 1992 .

[4]  C. Fornell,et al.  Patterns of Information Source usage among Durable Goods Buyers , 1979 .

[5]  John Riedl,et al.  E-Commerce Recommendation Applications , 2004, Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery.

[6]  R. Burt The Network Structure Of Social Capital , 2000 .

[7]  Matthew Osborne,et al.  Consumer learning, switching costs, and heterogeneity: A structural examination , 2007 .

[8]  Sang Pil Han,et al.  Network stability and Social Contagion on the Mobile Internet , 2011, ICIS.

[9]  Erik Brynjolfsson,et al.  Consumer Surplus in the Digital Economy: Estimating the Value of Increased Product Variety at Online Booksellers , 2003, Manag. Sci..

[10]  Peter S. Fader,et al.  Dynamic Conversion Behavior at E-Commerce Sites , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[11]  Tammo H. A. Bijmolt,et al.  Optimizing Retail Assortments , 2013, Mark. Sci..

[12]  Pradeep Chintagunta,et al.  Measuring Cross-Category Price Effects with Aggregate Store Data , 2006, Manag. Sci..

[13]  N. Eagle,et al.  Network Diversity and Economic Development , 2010, Science.

[14]  R. Walters Assessing the Impact of Retail Price Promotions on Product Substitution, Complementary Purchase, and Interstore Sales Displacement , 1991 .

[15]  W. Kamakura,et al.  Modeling Preference and Structural Heterogeneity in Consumer Choice , 1996 .

[16]  Eric T. Bradlow,et al.  The Variety of an Assortment , 1999 .

[17]  Arun Sundararajan,et al.  Research Commentary - Information in Digital, Economic, and Social Networks , 2013, Inf. Syst. Res..

[18]  Pasquale Lops,et al.  Introducing Serendipity in a Content-Based Recommender System , 2008, 2008 Eighth International Conference on Hybrid Intelligent Systems.

[19]  Ezra W. Zuckerman,et al.  Networks, Diversity, and Productivity: The Social Capital of Corporate R&D Teams , 2001 .

[20]  Bin Gu,et al.  Informational Cascades and Software Adoption on the Internet: An Empirical Investigation , 2008, MIS Q..

[21]  J. M. Henderson,et al.  Microeconomic Theory: A Mathematical Approach. , 1959 .

[22]  Greg M. Allenby,et al.  On the Heterogeneity of Demand , 1998 .

[23]  John Riedl,et al.  Recommender systems in e-commerce , 1999, EC '99.

[24]  Jeffrey M. Wooldridge,et al.  Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach , 1999 .

[25]  K. Goh,et al.  Social Media Brand Community and Consumer Behavior: Quantifying the Relative Impact of User- and Marketer-Generated Content , 2013 .

[26]  Loriene Roy,et al.  Content-based book recommending using learning for text categorization , 1999, DL '00.

[27]  Hema Yoganarasimhan,et al.  Impact of social network structure on content propagation: A study using YouTube data , 2011, Quantitative Marketing and Economics.

[28]  Arun Sundararajan,et al.  Is Oprah Contagious? Identifying Demand Spillovers in Online Networks , 2012 .

[29]  Jonathon N. Cummings,et al.  Tie and Network Correlates of Individual Performance in Knowledge-Intensive Work , 2004 .

[30]  Zsolt Katona,et al.  Network Formation and the Structure of the Commercial World Wide Web , 2008, Mark. Sci..

[31]  Hsinchun Chen,et al.  Analyzing Consumer-Product Graphs: Empirical Findings and Applications in Recommender Systems , 2005, Manag. Sci..

[32]  P. Nelson Information and Consumer Behavior , 1970, Journal of Political Economy.

[33]  Arun Sundararajan,et al.  Is Oprah Contagious? The Depth of Diffusion of Demand Shocks in a Product Network , 2017, MIS Q..

[34]  Arun Sundararajan,et al.  Recommendation Networks and the Long Tail of Electronic Commerce , 2010, MIS Q..

[35]  Sha Yang,et al.  Inertial Disruption: The Impact of a New Competitive Entrant on Online Consumer Search , 2009 .

[36]  Ram D. Gopal,et al.  Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Recommender Systems on Sales , 2010, J. Manag. Inf. Syst..

[37]  John K. Debenham,et al.  Informed Recommender: Basing Recommendations on Consumer Product Reviews , 2007, IEEE Intelligent Systems.

[38]  Steven M. Shugan The Cost Of Thinking , 1980 .

[39]  A. Raman,et al.  The Effect of Product Variety and Inventory Levels on Retail Store Sales: A Longitudinal Study , 2010 .

[40]  Ravi Kumar,et al.  Influence and correlation in social networks , 2008, KDD.

[41]  Jonathan L. Herlocker,et al.  Evaluating collaborative filtering recommender systems , 2004, TOIS.

[42]  Kartik Hosanagar,et al.  Blockbuster Culture's Next Rise or Fall: The Impact of Recommender Systems on Sales Diversity , 2007, Manag. Sci..

[43]  Arun Sundararajan,et al.  The Visible Hand? Demand Effects of Recommendation Networks in Electronic Markets , 2012, Manag. Sci..

[44]  ReagansRay,et al.  Networks, Diversity, and Productivity , 2001 .

[45]  G. Northcraft,et al.  You have printed the following article : Why Differences Make a Difference : A Field Study of Diversity , Conflict , and Performance in Workgroups , 2007 .

[46]  Dmitri Kuksov,et al.  When More Alternatives Lead to Less Choice , 2010, Mark. Sci..

[47]  Robert P. Leone,et al.  Implicit Price Bundling of Retail Products: A Multiproduct Approach to Maximizing Store Profitability , 1991 .

[48]  Wayne D. Hoyer,et al.  Why Switch? Product Category–Level Explanations for True Variety-Seeking Behavior , 1996 .

[49]  C. Granger Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods , 1969 .

[50]  Yu Jeffrey Hu,et al.  From Niches to Riches: Anatomy of the Long Tail , 2006 .

[51]  David J. Reibstein,et al.  Number of choices and perceived decision freedom as a determinant of satisfaction and consumer behavior. , 1975 .

[52]  P. Schnohr,et al.  Social network diversity and risks of ischemic heart disease and total mortality: findings from the Copenhagen City Heart Study. , 2005, American journal of epidemiology.

[53]  Oliver Hinz,et al.  New product adoption in social networks: Why direction matters , 2014 .

[54]  Arun Sundararajan,et al.  Information in Digital, Economic and Social Networks , 2012 .

[55]  Ramayya Krishnan,et al.  Research Note - The Halo Effect in Multicomponent Ratings and Its Implications for Recommender Systems: The Case of Yahoo! Movies , 2012, Inf. Syst. Res..

[56]  Jonathon N. Cummings,et al.  Relational instability at the network core: Support dynamics in developmental networks , 2006, Soc. Networks.

[57]  D. Berlyne Conflict, arousal, and curiosity , 2014 .

[58]  John Riedl,et al.  Analysis of recommendation algorithms for e-commerce , 2000, EC '00.

[59]  Jacob Goldenberg,et al.  The Quest for Content: How User-Generated Links can Facilitate Online Exploration , 2012 .

[60]  Peter S. H. Leeflang,et al.  Cross-category demand effects of price promotions , 2011, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science.

[61]  Vineet Padmanabhan,et al.  Research Note - A Cross-Category Model of Households' Incidence and Quantity Decisions , 2008, Mark. Sci..

[62]  Sergey Brin,et al.  The Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web Search Engine , 1998, Comput. Networks.

[63]  Gal Oestreicher-Singer,et al.  The Network Value of Products , 2013 .

[64]  Chrysanthos Dellarocas,et al.  Media, Aggregators and the Link Economy: Strategic Hyperlink Formation in Content Networks , 2010 .

[65]  Sucheta Nadkarni,et al.  A Task-Based Model of Perceived Website Complexity , 2007, MIS Q..

[66]  B. Kahn,et al.  The Impact of Context on Variety Seeking in Product Choices , 1995 .

[67]  W. Baumol,et al.  Variety in Retailing , 1956 .

[68]  Gerald L. Lohse,et al.  Cognitive Lock-In and the Power Law of Practice , 2003 .

[69]  John Roberts,et al.  Development and Testing of a Model of Consideration Set Composition , 1991 .

[70]  Marshall Scott Poole,et al.  Affect in Web Interfaces: A Study of the Impacts of Web Page Visual Complexity and Order , 2010, MIS Q..

[71]  Jonathon N. Cummings Work Groups, Structural Diversity, and Knowledge Sharing in a Global Organization , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[72]  Gerald L. Lohse,et al.  An Information Search Cost Perspective for Designing Interfaces for Electronic Commerce , 1999 .

[73]  Felipe Caro,et al.  The Effect of Assortment Rotation on Consumer Choice and Its Impact on Competition , 2009 .

[74]  Gediminas Adomavicius,et al.  Toward the next generation of recommender systems: a survey of the state-of-the-art and possible extensions , 2005, IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering.

[75]  Greg M. Allenby,et al.  Modeling Interdependent Consumer Preferences , 2003 .

[76]  Catherine E. Tucker Network Stability, Network Externalities and Technology Adoption , 2011 .

[77]  Sunil Gupta,et al.  The Shopping Basket: A Model for Multicategory Purchase Incidence Decisions , 1999 .

[78]  Joseph C. Nunes,et al.  The Effect of Product Assortment Changes on Customer Retention , 2005 .

[79]  Steven T. Berry Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation , 1994 .

[80]  Ramakrishnan Srikant,et al.  Mining quantitative association rules in large relational tables , 1996, SIGMOD '96.

[81]  R. Darlington,et al.  Regression and Linear Models , 1990 .

[82]  Hema Yoganarasimhan,et al.  Link to Success: How Blogs Build an Audience by Promoting Rivals , 2012, Manag. Sci..