THE PREDICTION OF AIR TRAVEL AND AIRCRAFT TECHNOLOGY TO THE YEAR 2000 USING THE DELPHI METHOD

Abstract A Delphi forecast for air traffic and technology during the 1990–2000 decade was carried out as part of the Department of Transportation Climatic Impact Assessment Study. The planning of the Delphi Survey and the selection of participants is described. The methods for carrying out the analyses are described including the use of computers. The criterion for evaluating the degree of consensus and the need for additional iterations is outlined. Finally the results of the survey are presented. The general conclusion is that air traffic will grow at slower rates than it has in the past and no major new developments in aircraft technology are foreseen. Supersonic flight is predicted to grow but at a slow rate.