Business cycles in Greek maritime transport: an econometric exploration (1998–2015)

Maritime transport has been a crucial input for the growth of the Greek economy given that the Greek fleet is one of largest merchant fleets in the world. However, the impact of the local and international business cycle on Greek maritime transport is inadequately researched, so far, in the literature. In this context, the present paper investigates the key determinants of maritime transport fluctuations in the three major ports of the Greek hinterland, taking into account a number of variables for the 1998–2015 time-span, capturing, at least partly, the global financial crisis and the local crisis, as well. To this end, various relevant quantitative techniques have been used, such as Granger causality, Dufour and Renault multistep causality and SURE system estimation. Our main finding is that Greek maritime transport traffic, as expressed through the cargo volumes of the three major ports of Piraeus, Volos and Thessaloniki, has not been influenced by the Greek business cycle, implying that the country’s maritime sector is practically independent of the macroeconomic conditions of the total economy. Clearly, future and more extended research would be relevant in the direction of applying the aforementioned approach to other EU countries of the Mediterranean.

[1]  Denis Pelletier,et al.  Short run and long run causality in time series: Inference , 2003 .

[2]  J. Hoffmann.  Latin American Ports: Results and Determinants of Private Sector Participation , 2001 .

[3]  D. Hawdon,et al.  Tanker freight rates in the short and long run , 1978 .

[4]  Martin Stopford,et al.  Maritime Economics 3e , 1988 .

[5]  Laurence Ales,et al.  A Theory of Political and Economic Cycles , 2012, J. Econ. Theory.

[6]  Jean-Marie Dufour,et al.  Short run and long run causality in time series , 2003 .

[7]  Harilaos N. Psaraftis.  Tariff Reform in the Port of Piraeus: a Practical Approach , 2005 .

[8]  Adib Kanafani,et al.  A disaggregate analysis of port selection , 2004 .

[9]  Joseph E. Stiglitz,et al.  Shaken and Stirred: Explaining Growth Volatility , 2003 .

[10]  D. Freedman,et al.  How Many Variables Should Be Entered in a Regression Equation , 1983 .

[11]  Jean-Marie Dufour,et al.  Short-Run and Long-Rub Causality in Time Series: Theory. , 1998 .

[12]  Panayotis G. Michaelides,et al.  Economic Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy in Europe: A Political Business Cycles Approach Using Panel Data and Clustering (1996–2013) , 2015 .

[14]  Campbell R. Harvey,et al.  Growth Volatility and Financial Liberalization , 2004 .

[15]  Bruno Urli,et al.  Port Selection and Multicriteria Analysis: An Application to the Montreal-New York Alternative , 2006 .

[16]  Gordon Wilmsmeier,et al.  The Impact of Port Characteristics on International Maritime Transport Costs , 2006 .

[17]  Toru Nakamura.  WHITE PAPER, European transport policy for 2010 : time to decide , 2004 .

[18]  R. Lucas.  UNDERSTANDING BUSINESS CYCLES , 1977 .

[19]  Paul R. Murphy,et al.  PORT SELECTION CRITERIA: AN APPLICATION OF A TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH FRAMEWORK , 1992 .

[20]  S J Meyrick,et al.  CARRIER SELECTION IN A RO/RO FERRY TRADE. , 1992 .

[21]  G. Schwarz.  Estimating the Dimension of a Model , 1978 .

[22]  C. Granger,et al.  Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing , 1987 .

[23]  T. Koopmans,et al.  Tanker Freight Rates and Tankship Building. , 1939 .

[24]  D. Thornton,et al.  Lag-Length Selection and Tests of Granger Causality between Money and Income , 1984 .

[25]  Andrew Dickerson,et al.  Business Cycle Correspondence in the European Union , 1998 .

[26]  Finn E. Kydland,et al.  Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth , 1990 .

[27]  Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén,et al.  Selection of optimal lag length in cointegrated VAR models with weak form of common cyclical features , 2009 .

[28]  Karl P. Sauvant.  UNCTAD, World Investment Report 1993: Transnational Corporations and Integrated International Production (Geneva and New York: United Nations, 1993) , 1993 .

[29]  Dani Rodrik,et al.  Why do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments? , 1996, Journal of Political Economy.

[30]  S. Johansen,et al.  MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE ON COINTEGRATION — WITH APPLICATIONS TO THE DEMAND FOR MONEY , 2009 .

[31]  M. Bejan.  Trade Openness and Output Volatility , 2006 .

[32]  Francesca Medda,et al.  Growth of Container Seaborne Traffic in the Mediterranean Basin: Outlook and Policy Implications for Port Development , 2007 .

[33]  Adib Kanafani,et al.  A disaggregate analysis of factors influencing port selection , 2001 .

[34]  S. Johansen.  STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF COINTEGRATION VECTORS , 1988 .

[35]  Francis W. Ahking,et al.  The relationship between government deficits, money growthm and inflation , 1985 .

[36]  M. Artis,et al.  Further evidence on the international business cycle and the ERM: is there a European business cycle? , 1999 .

[37]  Theo Notteboom,et al.  Port and terminal selection by deep-sea container operators , 2008 .

[38]  O. Williamson,et al.  The mechanisms of governance , 1996 .

[39]  W. Fuller,et al.  Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root , 1979 .

[40]  Hyuk-soo Cho,et al.  Determinants and Effects of Logistics Costs in Container Ports: The Transaction Cost Economics Perspective , 2014 .

[41]  S. Johansen.  Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models , 1996 .

[42]  A. Zellner.  An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation Bias , 1962 .

[43]  A. Hatemi‐J,et al.  Optimal lag-length choice in stable and unstable VAR models under situations of homoscedasticity and ARCH , 2008 .

[44]  Greek Port Cities in Transition: Regeneration Strategies, Waterfront Development and the Role of Cultural and Tourist Resources , 2006 .

[45]  Olaf Merk,et al.  Efficiency of World Ports in Container and Bulk Cargo (oil, coal, ores and grain) , 2012 .

[46]  Orestis Schinas,et al.  An Evaluation Model for Forecasting Methodologies in the Port Industry , 2004 .

[47]  Alan E. Branch,et al.  Elements of Port Operation and Management , 1986 .

[48]  G. Box,et al.  On a measure of lack of fit in time series models , 1978 .

[49]  T. Speed,et al.  Model selection and prediction: Normal regression , 1993 .

[50]  Christopher F. Baum.  An Introduction to Modern Econometrics Using Stata , 2006 .

[51]  V. K. Liew.  Which Lag Length Selection Criteria Should We Employ? , 2006 .

[52]  Roberta Scarsi,et al.  The bulk shipping business: market cycles and shipowners’ biases , 2007 .

[53]  Cheng Hsiao,et al.  Autoregressive Modeling of Canadian Money and Income Data , 1979 .

[54]  M C Willingdale.  SHIP-OPERATOR PORT-ROUTEING BEHAVIOUR AND THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS , 1984 .