Transfer Learning for Business Cycle Identification

A transfer learning strategy is proposed to identify business cycles phases when data are limited or there is no business cycle dating committee. The approach integrates the idea of storing knowledge gained from one region’s economics experts and applying it to other geographic areas. The first is captured with a supervised deep neural network model, and the second by applying it to another dataset, a domain adaptation procedure. The results indicate the method proposed leads to successful business cycle identification.

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