Building a Dynamic Spatial Microsimulation Model for Ireland

Microsimulation describes economic and social events by modelling the behaviour of individual agents. These models have proved useful in evaluating the impact of policy changes at the microlevel. Spatial microsimulation models contain geographical information and allow for a regional or local approach to policy analysis. This paper builds on previous work on urban systems by employing similar modelling techniques for the analysis of rural areas. It describes the development of the SMILE (Simulation Model for the Irish Local Economy) model. SMILE is a dynamic spatial microsimulation model designed to analyse the impact of policy change and economic development on rural areas in Ireland. At its core, SMILE is a model of population. It simulates the basic components of population change, fertility, mortality and internal migration, at a small area level. This paper describes the method for projecting population change at the subcounty level. Results from the 1991 and 1996 dynamic model at county level are discussed, and a brief comparison is made with other methods. Finally, the features that distinguish microsimulation models from other population projection models are discussed.

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