A Bayesian approach to sensitivity analysis.

Sensitivity analysis has traditionally been applied to decision models to quantify the stability of a preferred alternative to parametric variation. In the health literature, sensitivity measures have traditionally been based upon distance metrics, payoff variations, and probability measures. We advocate a new approach based on information value and argue that such an approach is better suited to address the decision-maker's real concerns. We provide an example comparing conventional sensitivity analysis to one based on information value. This article is a US government work and is in the public domain in the United States.

[1]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Value of Information Lotteries , 1967, IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern..

[2]  G. Hazen,et al.  Do Sensitivity Analyses Really Capture Problem Sensitivity? An Empirical Analysis Based on Information Value , 1999 .

[3]  J. Piccirillo,et al.  Decision Analysis of Treatment Options in Pyriform Sinus Carcinoma , 1987, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[4]  A Briggs,et al.  Uncertainty in the economic evaluation of health care technologies: the role of sensitivity analysis. , 1994, Health economics.

[5]  J. Wright,et al.  The minimal important difference: who's to say what is important? , 1996, Journal of clinical epidemiology.

[6]  James R. Evans SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DECISION THEORY , 1984 .

[7]  F A Sonnenberg,et al.  Toward a Peer Review Process for Medical Decision Analysis Models , 1994, Medical care.

[8]  Gordon B. Hazen,et al.  Sensitivity Analysis and the Expected Value of Perfect Information , 1998, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[9]  Georghios P. Sphicas,et al.  Notes and Communications ON SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DECISION THEORY , 1985 .

[10]  J D Habbema,et al.  Management of children with acute pharyngitis: a decision analysis. , 1992, The Journal of family practice.

[11]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Information Value Theory , 1966, IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern..

[12]  Bernie J. O'Brien,et al.  In Search of Power and Significance: Issues in the Design and Analysis of Stochastic Cost-Effectiveness Studies in Health Care , 1994, Medical care.

[13]  G. Guyatt,et al.  Assessing the minimal important difference in symptoms: a comparison of two techniques. , 1996, Journal of clinical epidemiology.

[14]  M J Small,et al.  Measuring Decision Sensitivity , 1992, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[15]  Simon French,et al.  A FRAMEWORK FOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DISCRETE MULTI OBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING , 1991 .

[16]  G. Guyatt,et al.  On the debate over methods for estimating the clinically important difference. , 1996, Journal of clinical epidemiology.

[17]  B. McNeil,et al.  Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation , 1985, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[18]  D. Redelmeier,et al.  Assessing the clinical importance of symptomatic improvements. An illustration in rheumatology. , 1993, Archives of internal medicine.