The Roots of Backpropagation: From Ordered Derivatives to Neural Networks and Political Forecasting

THESIS. Beyond Regression: New Tools for Prediction and Analysis in the Behavioral Sciences. Dynamic Feedback, Statistical Estimation, and Systems Optimization: General Techniques. The Multivariate ARMA(1,1) Model: Its Significance and Estimation. Simulation Studies of Techniques of Time--Series Analysis. General Applications of These Ideas: Practical Hazards and New Possibilities. Nationalism and Social Communications: A Test Case for Mathematical Approaches. APPLICATIONS AND EXTENSIONS. Forms of Backpropagation for Sensitivity Analysis, Optimization, and Neural Networks. Backpropagation Through Time: What It Does and How to Do It. Neurocontrol: Where It Is Going and Why It Is Crucial. Neural Networks and the Human Mind: New Mathematics Fits Humanistic Insight. Index.