Opinion Leaders' Role in Innovation Diffusion: A Simulation Study

This study investigates the critical role that opinion leaders (or influentials) play in the adoption process of new products. Recent existing reseach evidence indicates a limited effect of opinion leaders on diffusion processes, yet these studies take into account merely the network position of opinion leaders without addressing their influential power. Empirical findings of our study show that opinion leaders, in addition to having a more central network position, possess more accurate knowledge about a product and tend to be less susceptible to norms and more innovative. Experiments that address these attributes, using an agent-based model, demonstrate that opinion leaders increase the speed of the information stream and the adoption process itself. Furthermore, they increase the maximum adoption percentage. These results indicate that targeting opinion leaders remains a valuable marketing strategy.

[1]  R. Calantone,et al.  The effects of market network heterogeneity on innovation diffusion: An agent-based modeling approach , 2010 .

[2]  K. Pauwels,et al.  Effects of Word-of-Mouth versus Traditional Marketing: Findings from an Internet Social Networking Site , 2009 .

[3]  J. Goldenberg,et al.  The Role of Hubs in the Adoption Process , 2009 .

[4]  Vincent Mak,et al.  The Emergence of Opinion Leaders in Social Networks , 2008 .

[5]  Hazhir Rahmandad,et al.  Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the Dynamics of Diffusion: Comparing Agent-Based and Differential Equation Models , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[6]  César A. Hidalgo,et al.  Scale-free networks , 2008, Scholarpedia.

[7]  D. Watts,et al.  Influentials, Networks, and Public Opinion Formation , 2007 .

[8]  Guillaume Deffuant,et al.  Complexities in markets: Introduction to the special issue , 2007 .

[9]  Tammo H. A. Bijmolt,et al.  Targeting and timing promotional activities : An agent-based model for the takeoff of new products , 2007 .

[10]  G. Weimann,et al.  Looking for Opinion Leaders: Traditional Vs. Modern Measures in Traditional Societies , 2007 .

[11]  B. Lyons,et al.  Opinion leadership in a computer-mediated environment , 2005 .

[12]  Rosanna Garcia.  Uses of Agent-Based Modeling in Innovation/New Product Development Research , 2005 .

[13]  Frank M. Bass,et al.  A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[14]  Bart J. Bronnenberg,et al.  Market Roll-Out and Retailer Adoption for New Brands , 2004 .

[15]  Noah J. Goldstein,et al.  Social influence: compliance and conformity. , 2004, Annual review of psychology.

[16]  Marco Janssen,et al.  Simulating Market Dynamics: Interactions between Consumer Psychology and Social Networks , 2003, Artificial Life.

[17]  M. Macy,et al.  FROM FACTORS TO ACTORS: Computational Sociology and Agent-Based Modeling , 2002 .

[18]  Albert-László Barabási,et al.  Linked: The New Science of Networks , 2002 .

[19]  Wander Jager,et al.  Fashions, habits and changing preferences: Simulation of psychological factors affecting market dynamics , 2001 .

[20]  Frank R. Kardes,et al.  The role of the social-identity function of attitudes in consumer innovativeness and opinion leadership , 2000 .

[21]  T. Valente.  Social network thresholds in the diffusion of innovations , 1996 .

[22]  M Johnson,et al.  Word-of-mouth communication: causes and consequences. , 1995, Journal of health care marketing.

[23]  L. Flynn,et al.  The King and Summers opinion leadership scale: Revision and refinement , 1994 .

[24]  Vijay Mahajan,et al.  Chapter 8 New-product diffusion models , 1993, Marketing.

[25]  P. Herr,et al.  Effects of Word-of-Mouth and Product-Attribute Information on Persuasion: An Accessibility-Diagnosticity Perspective , 1991 .

[26]  Rabikar Chatterjee,et al.  The Innovation Diffusion Process in a Heterogeneous Population: A Micromodeling Approach , 1990 .

[27]  Linda L. Price,et al.  The market maven: A diffuser of marketplace information. , 1987 .

[28]  F. Bass.  A new product growth model for consumer durables , 1976 .

[29]  R. E. Burnkrant,et al.  Informational and Normative Social Influence in Buyer Behavior , 1975 .

[30]  John A. Czepiel.  Word-of-Mouth Processes in the Diffusion of a Major Technological Innovation , 1974 .

[31]  John O. Summers,et al.  Overlap of Opinion Leadership across Consumer Product Categories , 1970 .

[32]  James F. Engel,et al.  Word-of-mouth Communication by the Innovator , 1969 .

[33]  F. Nicosia,et al.  Uses of Sociology in Studying “Consumption” Behavior , 1964 .

[34]  M. Deutsch,et al.  A study of normative and informational social influences upon individual judgement. , 1955, Journal of abnormal psychology.

[35]  Steele's Shrewsbury Nurseries..  We were right , 1925 .