The economics of carbon sequestration through pest management: application to forested landbases in New Brunswick and Saskatchewan, Canada.

Abstract This analysis employs a spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) decision support system to examine costs and benefits of sequestering (protecting) carbon in forests through pest management. We analyzed 24 alternative spruce budworm protection scenarios for outbreaks on Prince Albert Forest Management Area (PAFMA) in Saskatchewan and Crown License 1 in New Brunswick. Scenarios included two outbreak severities (moderate and severe), three protection frequencies (very aggressive—protecting every year of the outbreak; aggressive—protecting the peak 3 years of outbreak; and semi-aggressive—protecting every second year of outbreak), and four protection program sizes (10,000 ha, 25,000 ha, 100,000 ha, or 150,000 ha). Under a severe outbreak, the largest (150,000 ha), very aggressive protection scenario provided the highest net CO2 protected at 24.95 million metric tons (Mt) in PAFMA and 29.19 Mt in License 1. This protection scenario also provided the highest net present value at $64.23 M and $91.36 M in PAFMA and License 1, respectively. On the other hand, benefit/cost ratios were maximized under the smallest (10,000 ha) protection size at 11.90 and 15.37 using the aggressive and semi-aggressive protection frequencies in PAFMA and License 1, respectively. Finally, the discounted cost per ton of CO2 protected was minimized at $0.48 and $0.37 using the smallest aggressive and semi-aggressive protection frequencies in PAFMA and License 1, respectively. The comparable costs and benefits from the moderate outbreak scenarios were similar, but generally less than, the severe outbreak scenarios. These results provide forest managers with important information needed to justify such carbon sequestration programs on economic grounds.

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