Structural Performance Model for Subway Networks

The Transit Federal Administration (FTA) reported that transit use increased by 25% between 1995 and 2005 in North America. Current communities are anticipating a high quality of life where people will be able to move freely with an affordable, reliable and efficient public transit. In 2009, the FTA estimated that 15.8 billion USD is needed annually to maintain and 21.6 billion USD is needed to improve the US transit network to satisfactory conditions. Moreover, the Canadian Urban Transit Association (CUTA) estimated that 140 Billion CAD are required for maintaining, rehabilitating and replacing the subway infrastructure between 2010 and 2014. It is apparent that subway management planning is of extreme importance in order to maintain the safety of infrastructure. Subway management plans consist of assessing the structural performance of subway networks, predicting future performance, planning future maintenance and repair policies and optimizing budget allocation. Most transit authorities lack tools/models for assessing the structural performance of subway network. Therefore, the present research assists in developing the SUbway PERformance (SUPER) model, which assesses structural performance of different components in a subway network and develops performance curves of subway components, systems, lines and the entire network. The developed SUPER model performs the following steps in order to achieve the above-mentioned objectives: (1) identifies and studies network hierarchy, (2) performs structural physical, functional and integrated performance assessment at the component level, and (3) constructs performance curves at the component, line and network levels. The SUPER model uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Multi-Attribute Utility Theory in order to assess the integrated components’ performance. It also utilizes a reliability-based cumulative Weibull function to construct the performance curves of components. In addition, series/parallel system modeling techniques are adopted to evaluate and construct the performance models of the systems, lines and network. Finally, a software application based upon the SUPER model is developed, entitled the ‘SUPER Model Software’. Data are collected from the Societe de Transport de Montreal (STM) inspection reports and through questionnaires. The questionnaires target transit authority managers and experienced structural engineers in both Canada and the USA. The developed SUPER model is applied to a network segment of the STM subway network. Results show that system deterioration rates are between 2% and 3% per year. The remaining useful service life are predicted to be until the year 2076 for renovated stations, 2030 for tunnels and between 2024 and 2040 for auxiliary structures. This research is relevant to industry practitioners (managers, engineers and field inspectors) and researchers since it develops structural performance assessment models and curves for subway networks.

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