Investigation into the automatic recognition of time series precursor of earthquakes

In this paper, a new method of quantitative description of earthquake precursors is proposed; by this method, the precursory pattern of time series can be quantitatively described with a two-dimensional matrix. On this basis, a method of automatic recognition or automatic acquirement of precursory pattern, called simply the AA method, is put forward. Then, taking North China region as an example, various seismological precursors such as the frequency, energy, b-value, etc. and various nonlinear parameter precursors such as the capacity dimension, information dimension, correlation dimension, Hurst index and its difference, etc. are analyzed and the 8 time series so obtained are recognized automatically using the proposed precursory pattern and AA method. Besides, C-method tests and very rigorous HF (history and future) tests are made. The result shows that the R-value of prediction efficacy assessment is fairly high.