Fuzzy Risk Calculation

For showing the imprecision of risk assessment in terms of probabilities, in this chapter we introduce the possibility-probability distribution (PPD). We focus on calculation and application of a PPD. Section 12.1 gives the definition of a PPD. Section 12.2 develops the method of information distribution forming an algorithm to calculate a PPD. Section 12.3 introduces the fuzzy expected value of a PPD to rank alternatives. Section 12.4 gives a real example in flood management to show the benefit of the ranking based on a PPD. We summarize this chapter in section 12.5.