A model for predicting enrolment yields

Predicting enrolment yields is central to any enrolment projection model. In order to more effectively assess the impact of financial aid strategies on the institutions budget, both revenues (tuition) and expenses (financial aid), one must start with an effective predictive model for yields. This paper will present a statistical model for assessing the relationship between enrolment yield, financial aid, applicant quality and applicant demographics. The approach employed in this work is logistic regression. The model is developed and preliminarily tested using actual 2009 admissions data. The same model is then employed to predict enrolments for the 2010 academic year.