Modelling seagrass growth and development to evaluate transplanting strategies for restoration.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Seagrasses are important marine plants that are under threat globally. Restoration by transplanting vegetative fragments or seedlings into areas where seagrasses have been lost is possible, but long-term trial data are limited. The goal of this study is to use available short-term data to predict long-term outcomes of transplanting seagrass. METHODS A functional-structural plant model of seagrass growth that integrates data collected from short-term trials and experiments is presented. The model was parameterized for the species Posidonia australis, a limited validation of the model against independent data and a sensitivity analysis were conducted and the model was used to conduct a preliminary evaluation of different transplanting strategies. KEY RESULTS The limited validation was successful, and reasonable long-term outcomes could be predicted, based only on short-term data. CONCLUSIONS This approach for modelling seagrass growth and development enables long-term predictions of the outcomes to be made from different strategies for transplanting seagrass, even when empirical long-term data are difficult or impossible to collect. More validation is required to improve confidence in the model's predictions, and inclusion of more mechanism will extend the model's usefulness. Marine restoration represents a novel application of functional-structural plant modelling.

[1]  G. Kendrick,et al.  Trophic Transfers from Seagrass Meadows Subsidize Diverse Marine and Terrestrial Consumers , 2008, Ecosystems.

[2]  A. Lindenmayer.  Mathematical models for cellular interactions in development. II. Simple and branching filaments with two-sided inputs. , 1968, Journal of theoretical biology.

[3]  A. Mccomb,et al.  The loss of seagrasses in Cockburn Sound, Western Australia. I. The time course and magnitude of seagrass decline in relation to industrial development , 1984 .

[4]  G. Kendrick,et al.  Contrasting responses of seagrass transplants (Posidonia australis) to nitrogen, phosphorus and iron addition in an estuary and a coastal embayment , 2009 .

[5]  Gary A. Kendrick,et al.  Modelling formation of complex topography by the seagrass Posidonia oceanica , 2005 .

[6]  M. Cambridge,et al.  Annual primary production and nutrient dynamics of the seagrasses Posidonia sinuosa and Posidonia australis in south-western Australia , 1997 .

[7]  Brian E. Julius,et al.  Use of two spatially explicit models to determine the effect of injury geometry on natural resource recovery , 2004 .

[8]  Frederick T. Short,et al.  A Global Crisis for Seagrass Ecosystems , 2006 .

[9]  H. Kirkman.  Pilot Experiments on Planting Seedlings and Small Seagrass Propagules in Western Australia , 1999 .

[10]  M. Cambridge,et al.  Transplantation as a method for restoring the seagrass Posidonia australis , 2008 .

[11]  W. Dennison,et al.  Seagrasses of south–west Australia: A conceptual synthesis of the world's most diverse and extensive seagrass meadows , 2007 .

[12]  Przemyslaw Prusinkiewicz,et al.  The Algorithmic Beauty of Plants , 1990, The Virtual Laboratory.

[13]  A. Mccomb,et al.  The loss of seagrass in Cockburn Sound, Western Australia. II. Possible causes of seagrass decline , 1986 .

[14]  Gary A. Kendrick,et al.  Using Agent‐Based Models to Aid Reef Restoration: Enhancing Coral Cover and Topographic Complexity through the Spatial Arrangement of Coral Transplants , 2005 .

[15]  Gary A. Kendrick,et al.  Nonlinear processes in seagrass colonisation explained by simple clonal growth rules , 2005 .

[16]  Gary A. Kendrick,et al.  Changes in seagrass coverage in Cockburn Sound, Western Australia between 1967 and 1999 , 2002 .

[17]  Gerhard Buck-Sorlin,et al.  The rule-based language XL and the modelling environment GroIMP illustrated with simulated tree competition. , 2008, Functional plant biology : FPB.

[18]  Christophe Godin,et al.  Functional-structural plant modelling. , 2005, The New phytologist.

[19]  Frederick T. Short,et al.  Accelerating loss of seagrasses across the globe threatens coastal ecosystems , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[20]  M. O. Hall,et al.  Evaluation of Seagrass Planting and Monitoring Techniques: Implications for Assessing Restoration Success and Habitat Equivalency , 2008 .

[21]  Jim Hanan,et al.  Foreword: Studying plants with functional-structural models. , 2008, Functional plant biology : FPB.

[22]  A. Lindenmayer.  Mathematical models for cellular interactions in development. I. Filaments with one-sided inputs. , 1968, Journal of theoretical biology.