Global sensitivity analysis techniques for the analysis of the oil potential of sedimentary basins

Petroleum engineers analysing the oil potential of sedimentary basins are confronted with modelling tasks such as the computation of the temperature and pressure 3D fields, the generation and expulsion of hydrocarbons (HC), and the secondary migration of HC in the traps. The last task also involves, more than others, the definition of a methodology to perform the calibration to the known data (dry holes, discovered reserves, etc.). ). In this paper, we focus on the modelling of the generation and expulsion of HC from a source rock in a particular sedimentary basin. We explore how some concepts deriving from the field of global sensitivity analysis can provide insights upon a better understanding of the models employed to simulate the generation and expulsion of HC from source rocks. In this preliminary study, in addition to a visual scatter-plot analysis, we apply global quantitative techniques of sensitivity analysis. We employ the extended FAST method (Saltelli et al., 1999), which has been applied for the sensitivity analysis of expelled oil, gas and wet gas time histories to groups of uncertain factors (ie model parameters and input data).