Predicting On-Time Line-Haul Performance in Scheduled Railroad Operations

This paper considers the problem of predicting on-time performance on a partially double-tracked rail line with scheduled traffic. In particular, the model presented herein explicitly incorporates the uncertainty in train departure times along with more complex line structures than have been considered previously. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are used to validate the predictions made by the proposed model under an optimal meet/pass planning process.

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