The evaluation of forest crop damages due to climate change. An application of Dempster–Shafer method

In order to assess damage risk caused by climate change in forest areas, Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy measures were applied to develop a framework for the estimation of economic forest damage. According to the definition of risk supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a function of hazard and resilience lines of evidence was defined. The results of the hazard and resilience assessment were used to develop an economic framework based on Faustmann studies. The evaluation model, implemented through a spatial analysis procedure, was carried out linking Faustmann formula with hazard and resilience raster maps. The model permitted to estimate in monetary terms two possible costs to be supported: the first one is expressed as the expected damage to the forest crop on the basis of the current obtainable woody assortments and the second one referred to the potential expenses to pay in order to mitigate the risk. Finally, the framework was tested on an area of central Italy (Tuscany region).

[1]  C. Carraro,et al.  La valutazione economica degli impatti dei cambiamenti climatici in Italia e delle relative misure di adattamento , 2009 .

[2]  Thomas Knoke,et al.  Investment decisions under uncertainty—A methodological review on forest science studies , 2011 .

[3]  Ian Ferguson,et al.  Decision support system for the sustainable forest management , 2000 .

[4]  I. Bernetti,et al.  Stima dei danni economici indotti dai cambiamenti climatici sul settore zootecnico e agricolo toscano: previsioni per il periodo 2007-2099 , 2009 .

[5]  Alexis J. Comber,et al.  A comparison of Bayes', Dempster-Shafer and Endorsement theories for managing knowledge uncertainty in the context of land cover monitoring , 2004, Comput. Environ. Urban Syst..

[6]  P. Kauppi,et al.  A Case Study of the Effects of CO2-Induced Climatic Warming on Forest Growth and the Forest Sector: A. Productivity Reactions of Northern Boreal Forests , 1988 .

[7]  A. Patt,et al.  Communicating uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment , 2005 .

[8]  Ching-Hsue Cheng,et al.  Evaluating the best main battle tank using fuzzy decision theory with linguistic criteria evaluation , 2002, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[9]  P. P. Mujumdar,et al.  Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster–Shafer and Bayesian approaches , 2010 .

[10]  Alexander Arpaci,et al.  Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review , 2011 .

[11]  M. Flannigan,et al.  Climate change and forest fires. , 2000, The Science of the total environment.

[12]  Wuben Ben Luo,et al.  Using Dempster–Shafer Theory to Represent Climate Change Uncertainties , 1997 .

[13]  Baumartenvielfalt und Produktionsrisiken: Ein Forschungseinblick und -ausblick | Diversity of tree species and risk: A research insight and outlook , 2007 .

[14]  M. Parry,et al.  The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture. Vol. 1: Assessments in Cool, Temperate and Cold Regions , 1988 .

[15]  A. Solomon.  Transient response of forests to CO2-induced climate change: simulation modeling experiments in eastern North America , 1986, Oecologia.

[16]  Shyi-Mig Chen,et al.  A new approach to handling fuzzy decision-making problems , 1988, [1988] Proceedings. The Eighteenth International Symposium on Multiple-Valued Logic.

[17]  Glenn Shafer,et al.  A Mathematical Theory of Evidence , 2020, A Mathematical Theory of Evidence.

[18]  L. J. Savage,et al.  The Foundations of Statistics , 1955 .

[19]  Ching-Lai Hwang,et al.  Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making - Methods and Applications , 1992, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems.

[20]  Philippe Ciais,et al.  Modeling climate change effects on the potential production of French plains forests at the sub-regional level. , 2005, Tree physiology.

[21]  H Scherm,et al.  Simulating uncertainty in climate-pest models with fuzzy numbers. , 2000, Environmental pollution.

[22]  Richard A. Fournier,et al.  Application of evidential reasoning to improve the mapping of regenerating forest stands , 2011, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinformation.

[23]  L. Cayuela,et al.  Clearance and fragmentation of tropical montane forests in the Highlands of Chiapas, Mexico (1975-2000) , 2006 .

[24]  J. Innes,et al.  Integrating climate change into forest management in South-Central British Columbia: An assessment of landscape vulnerability and development of a climate-smart framework , 2008 .

[25]  Joseph Buongiorno,et al.  Generalization of Faustmann's Formula for Stochastic Forest Growth and Prices with Markov Decision Process Models , 2001 .

[26]  M. Rambonilaza,et al.  Amenity values and payment schemes for free recreation services from non-industrial private forest properties: A French case study , 2010 .

[27]  H. Kromp-Kolb,et al.  The sensitivity of Austrian forests to scenarios of climatic change: a large-scale risk assessment based on a modified gap model and forest inventory data , 2002 .

[28]  Ching-Hsue Cheng.  A simple fuzzy group decision making method , 1999, FUZZ-IEEE'99. 1999 IEEE International Fuzzy Systems. Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.99CH36315).

[29]  Peter Lohmander,et al.  Optimal sequential forestry decisions under risk , 2000, Ann. Oper. Res..

[30]  Piermaria Corona,et al.  Impacts of climate change on European forests and options for adaptation , 2008 .

[31]  Mark J. Ducey,et al.  Representing uncertainty in silvicultural decisions : an application of the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence , 2001 .

[32]  N. Stern.  The Economics of Climate Change: Implications of Climate Change for Development , 2007 .

[33]  Concetta Vazzana,et al.  Sustainability of dairy farming system in Tuscany in a changing climate , 2010 .

[34]  D. J. Chmura,et al.  Silvicultural approaches to maintain forest health and productivity under current and future climates , 2009 .

[35]  Marc Hanewinkel,et al.  Assessing natural hazards in forestry for risk management: a review , 2011, European Journal of Forest Research.

[36]  Marc Hanewinkel,et al.  Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany. , 2010 .