A spatial autocorrelation analysis of land use change in Pearl River Delta

By synthetically modeling and analyzing geographic phenomena of land use and land cover change(LUCC) in space and time,the inherent law inside the spatial-temporal evolution of LUCC can be explored.This kind of spatial-temporal analysis provides a scientific basis for rational/optimal use of land,which enables a sustainable development of a region.Based on the land use data from 1990 to 2005,this paper carefully analyzed the spatial-temporal pattern of LUCC in Pearl River Delta.Several spatial autocorrelation analyses were implemented,i.e.,global spatial autocorrelation analysis,and univariate/bivariate local spatial correlation analysis.Results showed that the global spatial autocorrelation of LUCC in the study area was weak,and the global land use was random.However,univariate/bivariate local spatial correlation analysis showed differences among different sub-regions and among different periods,which reveal an imbalance of regional development.This paper also shows that spatial autocorrelation analysis is a useful method for analyzing and modeling LUCC.