Modelling risk based cost analysis of port adaptation measures to climate change

This paper presents a techno-economic modelling methodology that can be applied to the economic analysis of port climate change adaptation measures based on risk analysis. The proposed methodology brings together risk and cost criteria into the decision making process for the improvement of port adaptation policies. Information produced using a subjective fuzzy risk analysis approach is utilised to construct such a techno-economic model. An evidential reasoning approach is then employed to synthesis the risk analysis results and economic evaluation of port adaptation measures to process the constructed model. The results produced can assist policymakers in developing efficient adaptation measures that take into account the reduction of probabilistic risks, their possible consequences, their timeframe, as well as the need of costs incurred. A technical example of risk-based economic analysis of adaptation measures in an American port is presented to demonstrate the interaction between economic modelling and risk analysis and to indicate the potential use of this methodology in the climate change adaptation decision-making process of port systems. The results of the paper will provide important insight to the maritime community as to how to develop efficient climate change adaptation measures in a wider supply chain context to ensure maritime transportation sustainability.

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