A probabilistic model for the assessment of uncertainties in the shear strength of rock discontinuities

Discontinuity shear strength plays a critical role in many problems encountered in rock engineering, especially in the design of rock slopes. Since its precise estimation is generally not possible, it is crucial that the errors and uncertainties associated with its estimate be quantified and reflected in the design procedure. In this study, the uncertainties underlying discontinuity shear strength are thoroughly examined and an uncertainty analysis model is developed for the estimation of in situ discontinuity shear strength with a special emphasis on rock slopes. An extensive literature survey on shear behavior of unfilled rock discontinuities has been carried out and the necessary data for the quantification of uncertainties are extracted from this survey. These uncertainties stem from the discrepancies between laboratory-measured and in situ discontinuity shear strength values, as well as from the inherent variability of shear strength within a rock medium. The main causes of discrepancies, namely, scale, anisotropy and water saturation are considered. For each source of discrepancy a correction factor, treated as a random variable, is assigned and guidelines for the quantification of the statistical parameters of these correction factors are presented within the framework of the proposed uncertainty analysis model. The proposed uncertainty model provides an analytical tool for the systematic treatment of uncertainties involved in the estimation of the in situ value of peak friction angle from the laboratory test results.

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