Reconstructing, Monitoring, and Predicting Multidecadal-Scale Changes in the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation with Sea Surface Temperature

Sea surface temperature (SST) observations in the North Atlantic indicate the existence of strong multidecadal variability with a unique spatial structure. It is shown by means of a new global climate model, which does not employ flux adjustments, that the multidecadal SST variability is closely related to variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The close correspondence between the North Atlantic SST and THC variabilities allows, in conjunction with the dynamical inertia of the THC, for the prediction of the slowly varying component of the North Atlantic climate system. It is shown additionally that past variations of the North Atlantic THC can be reconstructed from a simple North Atlantic SST index and that future, anthropogenically forced changes in the THC can be easily monitored by observing SSTs. The latter is confirmed by another state-ofthe-art global climate model. Finally, the strong multidecadal variability may mask an anthropogenic signal in the North Atlantic for some decades.

[1]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Northern hemispheric interdecadal variability : A coupled air-sea mode , 1998 .

[2]  James C. McWilliams,et al.  Decadal Variability and Predictability in the Midlatitude Ocean–Atmosphere System , 2000 .

[3]  S. Manabe,et al.  The rôle of thermohaline circulation in climate , 1999 .

[4]  J. Hurrell Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation , 1995, Science.

[5]  W. Broecker,et al.  Does the ocean–atmosphere system have more than one stable mode of operation? , 1985, Nature.

[6]  J. Bjerknes Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction , 1964 .

[7]  Michael E. Mann,et al.  Observed and Simulated Multidecadal Variability in the Northern Hemisphere , 1999 .

[8]  R. Washington,et al.  Large Scale Modes of Ocean Surface Temperature Since the Late Nineteenth Century , 1999 .

[9]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments , 2000 .

[10]  H. Stommel,et al.  Thermohaline Convection with Two Stable Regimes of Flow , 1961 .

[11]  M. Latif,et al.  Predicting the '97 El Niño event with a global climate model , 1998 .

[12]  Clara Deser,et al.  Surface Climate Variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during Winter: 1900–1989 , 1993 .

[13]  R. Voss,et al.  The stability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model , 1997 .

[14]  Mojib Latif,et al.  Dynamics of Interdecadal Variability in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Models , 1998 .

[15]  D. Parker,et al.  Worldwide marine temperature fluctuations 1856–1981 , 1984, Nature.

[16]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Interannual to Decadal Predictability in a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model , 1999 .

[17]  Syukuro Manabe,et al.  Interdecadal Variations of the Thermohaline Circulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model , 1993 .

[18]  Syukuro Manabe,et al.  Two Stable Equilibria of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model , 1988 .

[19]  T. Palmer,et al.  Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901–85 , 1986, Nature.

[20]  Mojib Latif,et al.  The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates , 2003 .

[21]  E. Roeckner,et al.  Forcing of the quasi‐biennial oscillation from a broad spectrum of atmospheric waves , 2002 .

[22]  Eli Tziperman,et al.  A Linear Thermohaline Oscillator Driven by Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing , 1995, ao-sci/9502002.

[23]  J. Carton,et al.  Atlantic Climate Variability Experiment , 2001 .

[24]  M. Latif,et al.  Tropical stabilization of the thermohaline circulation in a greenhouse warming simulation , 2000 .

[25]  T. Stockdale,et al.  Toward the Use of Altimetry for Operational Seasonal Forecasting , 2000 .

[26]  J. Marotzke,et al.  Atmospheric Transports, the Thermohaline Circulation, and Flux Adjustments in a Simple Coupled Model , 1995 .

[27]  R. Voss,et al.  Multi-fingerprint detection and attribution analysis of greenhouse gas, greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol and solar forced climate change , 1997 .

[28]  I. Polyakov,et al.  Arctic decadal and interdecadal variability , 2000 .

[29]  Y. Kushnir,et al.  Interdecadal Variations in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Associated Atmospheric Conditions , 1994 .

[30]  Stephen M. Griffies,et al.  Predictability of North Atlantic Multidecadal Climate Variability , 1997, Science.

[31]  M. Collins,et al.  Projections of future climate change , 2002 .

[32]  Jonathan M. Gregory,et al.  Changing spatial structure of the thermohaline circulation in response to atmospheric CO2 forcing in a climate model , 1999, Nature.

[33]  S. Rahmstorf Shifting seas in the greenhouse? , 1999, Nature.