Estimating wheat yields in Australia using climate records, satellite image time series and machine learning methods

Abstract Closing the yield gap between actual and potential wheat yields in Australia is important to meet the growing global demand for food. The identification of hotspots of the yield gap, where the potential for improvement is the greatest, is a necessary step towards this goal. While crop growth models are well suited to quantify potential yields, they lack the ability to provide accurate large-scale estimates of actual yields, owing to the sheer quantity of data they require for parameterisation. In this context, we sought to provide accurate estimates of actual wheat yields across the Australian wheat belt based on machine-learning regression methods, climate records and satellite image time series. Out of nine base learners and two ensembles, support vector regression with radial basis function emerged as the single best learner (root mean square error of 0.55 t ha−1 and R2 of 0.77 at the pixel level). At national scale, this model explained 73% of the yield variability observed across statistical units. Benchmark approaches based on peak Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and on a harvest index were largely outperformed by the machine-learning regression models (R2