A Monte Carlo Filtering Approach for Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates

We develop new methodology for estimation of general class of term structure models based on a Monte Carlo filtering approach. We utilize the generalized state space model which can be naturally applied to the estimation of the term structure models based on the Markov state processes. It is also possible to introduce measurement errors in the general way without any bias. Moreover, the Monte Carlo filter can be applied even to the models in which the zero-coupon bonds' prices can not be analytically obtained. As an example, we apply the method to LIBORs (London Inter Bank Offered Rates) and interest rates swaps in the Japanese market and show the usefulness of our approach.

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