Reflecting Warfighter Needs in Air Force Programs: Prototype Analysis

Abstract : This report documents a phase-one effort to develop new methods for the Air Force to use in ensuring that warfighter needs are adequately represented as the Air Force puts together its program and budget for the Department of Defense s (DoD s) Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution process. We designed generic methods and then illustrated them for a single, concrete mission area: close air support (CAS). Our prototype analysis with notional data was concrete enough to demonstrate the primary concepts and analytic methods. The intended next stage of this research will flesh out the mission area with better data, apply the approach to additional mission areas, address trade-offs that cross mission areas (an especially difficult issue), and examine how the methods might be used within the current programbuilding process, or how that process might be modified.

[1]  Roger Smith,et al.  Military Modeling , 2007, Handbook of Dynamic System Modeling.

[2]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-System Analysis, and Transformation , 2002 .

[3]  Adam C. Resnick,et al.  Assessing Capabilities and Risks in Air Force Programming , 2009 .

[4]  David T. Orletsky,et al.  Beyond Close Air Support: Forging a New Air Ground Partnership , 2005 .

[5]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Families of models that cross levels of resolution: issues for design, calibration and management , 1993, WSC '93.

[6]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation , 2007 .

[7]  Robert A. Simons.  Levers Of Organization Design: How Managers Use Accountability Systems For Greater Performance And Commitment , 2005 .

[8]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Resource Allocation for the New Defense Strategy The DynaRank Decision-Support System , 1998 .

[9]  Jay Mandelbaum,et al.  Acquisition Initiatives Review-Phase 2 , 2006 .

[10]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Experiments In Multiresolution Modeling (MRM) , 1998 .

[11]  Charles E. Kirkpatrick.  Joint Fires as They Were Meant to Be: V Corps and the 4th Air Support Operations Group During Operation Iraqi Freedom , 2004 .

[12]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Rand's Portfolio Analysis Tool (Pat): Theory, Methods, and Reference Manual , 2009 .

[13]  John Stillion,et al.  Aerospace Operations Against Elusive Ground Targets , 2001 .

[14]  James N. Mattis,et al.  USJFCOM Commander’s Guidance for Effects-based Operations , 2008, The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters.

[15]  Edward A. Smith.  Complexity, Networking, & Effects-Based Approaches to Operations , 2006 .

[16]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Finding Candidate Options for Investment: From Building Blocks to Composite Options and Preliminary Screening , 2008 .

[17]  Edward A. Smith.  Complexity, Networking, and Effects-Based Operations , 2005 .

[18]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options , 2008 .

[19]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Preface , 2021 .

[20]  David E. Johnson,et al.  Enhancing Fires and Maneuver Capability Through Greater Air-Ground Joint Interdependence , 2009 .

[21]  James M. Dubik.  Effects-Based Decisions and Actions , 2003 .

[22]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking , 2003 .

[23]  David Ochmanek,et al.  The New Calculus: Analyzing Airpower's Changing Role in Joint Theater Campaigns , 1995 .

[24]  Thomas W. Lucas,et al.  The Stochastic Versus Deterministic Argument for Combat Simulations: Tales of When the Average Won't Do , 2000 .

[25]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Metrics for the Quadrennial Defense Review's Operational Goals , 2003 .

[26]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Effects-Based Operations (EBO): A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community , 2006 .

[27]  Jerome Bracken,et al.  Portfolio Analysis in the Context of the Concept Decision Process , 2008 .

[28]  Katherine Schinasi,et al.  An Integrated Portfolio Management approach to weapon System Investments Could Improve DoD's Acquisition Outcomes , 2007 .

[29]  Daniel M. Norton,et al.  Enhancing Dynamic Command and Control of Air Operations Against Time Critical Targets , 2002 .

[30]  Richard Mesic,et al.  Courses of Action for Enhancing U.S. Air Force Irregular Warfare Capabilities: A Functional Solutions Analysis , 2010 .