A deep learning approach to real-time CO concentration prediction at signalized intersection

Abstract Vehicle exhaust emissions at signalized intersections are the essential source of traffic-related pollution to pedestrians. Therefore, it is critical to predicting traffic emissions, especially the hazardous CO gas, with practical and accurate methods. However, the CO emission and concentration at crosswalks can be influenced by the complex traffic conditions in a complicated way, making the prediction of CO concentration a challenging task for traditional statistical models. To this end, a hybrid machine learning framework is proposed in this study to investigate the concentration of CO emissions at pedestrian crosswalks. The proposed method firstly ranks key influencing factors with a random forest approach. Then a prediction model with Multi-Variate Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks based on the selected factors is developed. Data is collected at the field intersection for model training and validation. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), support vector machines (SVM), radial basis functions network (RBFN), nonlinear vector autoregressive (VAR) and gated recurrent unit ( GRU ) neural network are selected as the benchmark models to verify the performance of the proposed model. The Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and R square are calculated to evaluate the performance of models comprehensively. The results indicated that the proposed model overwhelms the benchmark models in terms of prediction accuracy.